Class 5 · 7f · Good to Firm (Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 68.5
GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 16:49 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (91% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, LYRA LEA leads on 82, 12pts clear of NORFOLK BLUE (IRE) — in form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is DECALOGUE (USA) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes LYRA LEA the 36% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
LYRA LEA
OR 74 · Lewis Edmunds / Rod Millman
MARKET 2.76 · the market rates it a 36% chance
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (82.0)Stable in form this week — 6 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.77x market expectation)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
NORFOLK BLUE (IRE)
OR 67 · Cieren Fallon / William Knight
MARKET 5.8 · the market rates it a 17% chance
70FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (70)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
BERKSHIRE BOOM (IRE)
OR 68 · Jason Watson / Andrew Balding
MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
66FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (66)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1LYRA LEAnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot
2UNIONVILLEnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip
3DECALOGUE (USA)net +5drops in class, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot, FormLab watch flag
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. UNIONVILLE is the one to beat it — an edge LYRA LEA lacks: proven at the trip.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 32% · n=158
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
KING CHERRY (IRE) FIGURE #4
Stuart Williams's runners in Class 4-5 company win 11.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by prominent racers 45% · hold-up closers 21% (33 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stamina-sapping uphill finish — the defining feature. Winners’ energy signature: 49.11% spent early (band 48.15–49.86%, 43 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.3s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 79% · n=68
22 similar races at SANDOWN PARK, 6.0-8.0f, 3yo handicaps, Class 4-6, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (91% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites). 23% won last time out, 41% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
64% 15-45d
27% within 14d
5% 91d+
Market
41% 2nd favourite
27% 4th+ in the market
27% favourite
LTO form
41% placed last time
36% unplaced last time
23% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6
123456
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 1.5 of 6, field average 3.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LYRA LEA is 0/3 on softer ground · NORFOLK BLUE (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · BERKSHIRE BOOM (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
LYRA LEAPROMINENT50.7%99.4just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
DECALOGUE (USA)HELD-UP47.6%107.6the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
UNIONVILLEMID48.3%103.2a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BERKSHIRE BOOM (IRE)MID50.9%99.8one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
NORFOLK BLUE (IRE)MID49.2%103.0a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
KING CHERRY (IRE)PROMINENT47.7%101.5the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and holds on late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
KING CHERRY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best
LYRA LEAPROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1LYRA LEAPROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 74 · Lewis Edmunds / Rod Millman
MARKET 2.76 · the market rates it a 36% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 12pts clear of the next, in form; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
74 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.06)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Rod Millman · 787 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)29/24311.9%0.9911/3432.4%1.86
In fields of <=7 ✦30/12524.0%1.3111/5719.3%1.26
Over 7-8f trips ✦24/17713.6%1.1910/8012.5%1.24
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/33911.8%1.0618/11315.9%1.2
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)5/2025.0%1.381/333.3%1.9
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~71.7 demand
The rider
Lewis Edmunds · last 14 days: 3/26· at Sandown Park: A/E 1.77 (n32)· with this yard: A/E 1.34 (n200)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 68.5graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields1st of 6
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 6
99.4%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 6
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Salisbury1mGood52nd7372.5Fast early37.7 +0.1295.3-0.03
6 Jun 26Chepstow7f16ySoft42nd7177True41.3 +0.3695.8—
18 May 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd44th7282Slow early40.1 +0.00107.5-0.01
Timed runs 2025-08-26 to 2026-06-30. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs UNIONVILLE (read through AIGEAS, MIGHTY VEGA) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs NORFOLK BLUE (IRE) (read through TWILIGHT GLOW, LEGACY ROCK, AMAZING JOURNEY) ≈ -0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (82.0)Stable in form this week — 6 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.77x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led 2f out, hung right approaching final 1f, headed final 100 yds, no extra, no extra”
#2NORFOLK BLUE (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 67 · Cieren Fallon / William Knight
MARKET 5.8 · the market rates it a 17% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
70FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 12pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
70 · ranked #2 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
67 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 9 tries
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.7s Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.04% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 25 places on the course scale (FFOS LAS 34th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Knight · 562 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦14/8416.7%1.017/2528.0%1.19
At this time of year (Q3) ✦28/20513.7%1.136/2920.7%1.18
On turf ✦38/27713.7%1.2114/8915.7%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips31/20215.3%1.39/7012.9%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)3/1816.7%1.540/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~71.7 demand
The rider
Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 3/27· at Sandown Park: A/E 0.68 (n23)· with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n68)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 68.5graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields4th of 6
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 6
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 6
103.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 6
7.21 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Ffos Las7f80yGood55th6867True40.8 -0.68110.3—
14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGood62nd6561True40.4 +0.12101.2+0.41
23 May 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm54th6665.5—40.8 +0.14105.0+0.33
Timed runs 2025-08-21 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs LYRA LEA (read through TWILIGHT GLOW, LEGACY ROCK, AMAZING JOURNEY) ≈ +0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (70)Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, headway over 2f out, one paced”
#3BERKSHIRE BOOM (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 68 · Jason Watson / Andrew Balding
MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
66FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 16pts off the top, in form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
66 · ranked #3 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
68 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 6 tries · beats market expectation (1.18)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2435 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0549/21722.6%1.24
In Class 4-5 company ✦184/96219.1%1.0357/23124.7%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days28/15018.7%1.084/3710.8%0.69
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)12/8114.8%0.911/147.1%0.38
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~71.7 demand
The rider
Jason Watson · last 14 days: 5/21· at Sandown Park: A/E 0.83 (n36)· with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n303)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 68.5graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields5th of 6
-0.32 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 6
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 6
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 6
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-06-15 to 2026-07-10. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (66)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“rear, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on”
#4KING CHERRY (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 63 · Marco Ghiani / Stuart Williams
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
59FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 23pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and holds on late.
FormLab Figure
59 · ranked #4 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
63 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
70
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.54% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
drops 5 places on the course scale (NEWMARKET 4th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Stuart Williams · 972 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, off marks in the 61 to 75 range, with their 3yos, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦30/16418.3%1.0912/6020.0%1.36
Coming back after 46 to 90 days9/5217.3%1.94/2615.4%1.22
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)0/110.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 66 is below the ~71.7 the race demands
The rider
Marco Ghiani · last 14 days: 6/43· at Sandown Park: A/E 1.87 (n14)· with this yard: A/E 1.37 (n325)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 68.5graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 6
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 6
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 6
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 May 26Newmarket1mGood48th——True39.4 -0.1792.7-0.09
Timed runs 2026-04-06 to 2026-05-15. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.87x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led until 2f out, weakened 1f out”
#5UNIONVILLEMID
DRAW 6 · OR 69 · Kieren Fox / Michael Attwater
MARKET drifting 16.5 → 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
58.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 23.7pts off the top, proven at the trip; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
58.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
69 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.73)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.16% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 7 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 68.5 vs 73 last run (KEMPTON PARK · 2 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Attwater · 705 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=717/11115.3%1.544/3710.8%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦15/2565.9%0.866/916.6%0.78
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)0/90.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)13/1877.0%0.981/119.1%1.32
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~71.7 demand
The rider
Kieren Fox · last 14 days: 0/8· at Sandown Park: A/E 0 (n3)· with this yard: A/E 1.62 (n43)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 68.5graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 6
103.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 6
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-02-12 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs LYRA LEA (read through AIGEAS, MIGHTY VEGA) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“always behind”
#6DECALOGUE (USA)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 72 · William Carver / Jamie Osborne
MARKET 36 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
47FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 35pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
47 · ranked #6 here · career best 56
Official mark (OR)
72 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
58
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.62% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 7 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 2 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jamie Osborne · 780 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: over an unchanged trip, with the mark MARK-FLAT
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf24/2579.3%1.065/707.1%0.81
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)1/156.7%1.250/60.0%0.0
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)1/254.0%0.60/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 56 is below the ~71.7 the race demands
The rider
William Carver · last 14 days: 3/6· at Sandown Park: A/E 0 (n4)· with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n221)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 68.5graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields6th of 6
-0.50 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph6th of 6
+0.66s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 6
107.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 6
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 May 26Kempton Park7fSlow48th——True38.4 -0.34105.5+0.51
8 Oct 25Kempton Park7fStd58th——Slow early39.8 -0.66109.7+0.80
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-08 to 2026-05-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Drops in class todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.3 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare result