FORMLAB Race Report — Sandown Park 19:30

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Sandown Park · 19:30

Class 4 · 1m · Good to Firm (Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 78.5

GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 16:48 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, CRISTO leads on 89, 3pts clear of WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE) — a yard that scores in today’s conditions. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is BUBBLES WONKY (IRE) — the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls. The market agrees — it makes CRISTO the 36% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

CRISTO

OR 79 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon

MARKET 2.76 · the market rates it a 36% chance

89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (89.0)Stable in form this week — 7 wins from 31 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare result

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE)

OR 80 · Jason Watson / Charles Hills

MARKET drifting 5.9 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance

86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (86.0)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.38)Historically underestimated by the market

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 2

SEA SUITE (IRE)

OR 76 · Luke Morris / James Owen

MARKET 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (83.0)Stable in form this week — 5 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.41x market expectation)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip

2CRISTOnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup

3SWIPEDnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, yard hot − steps into much stronger company by the marks, 5lb+ above last winning mark

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge CRISTO lacks: proven at the trip.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by prominent racers 32% · midfield runners 30% (44 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Stamina-sapping uphill finish — the defining feature. Winners’ energy signature: 49.46% spent early (band 48.65–50.19%, 58 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.57s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331 Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 79% · n=68

17 similar races at SANDOWN PARK, 7.5-8.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (94% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites). 18% won last time out, 29% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

47% 4yo

24% 6yo+

18% 5yo

Last ran

82% 15-45d

12% within 14d

6% 46-90d

Market

35% 4th+ in the market

29% 3rd favourite

18% 2nd favourite

LTO form

53% unplaced last time

29% placed last time

18% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: CRISTO is 0/3 on softer ground · WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · SEA SUITE (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE) MID 49.9% 99.9 one-paced late — 6th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

CRISTO MID 50.5% 99.9 one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

SEA SUITE (IRE) MID 49.8% 100.9 solid late gains (4th of 6 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

BUBBLES WONKY (IRE) PROMINENT 48.7% 103.5 the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls

LORCA'S WALTZ PROMINENT 48.6% 101.8 a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls

SWIPED MID 49.7% 101.5 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

BUBBLES WONKY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

LORCA'S WALTZPROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 CRISTO MID

DRAW 5 · OR 79 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon

MARKET 2.76 · the market rates it a 36% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−

89.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

89.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 91

Official mark (OR)

79 · last won off 76

Record at today's distance

1 win from 13 tries · below market expectation (0.73)

Days since last run

11

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.94% (one-paced late)

Headgear

Cheekpieces · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.36)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 4 · 1m22y · rated 891stClass 4 · 1m · rated 897thClass 4 · 1m176y · rated 81DNFClass 4 · 1m · rated —2ndClass 4 · 1m · rated 84

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Richard Hannon · 2106 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Sandown Park5/588.6%0.946/2128.6%2.26

At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8115/8817.0%1.36

Over 7-8f trips65/6799.6%0.8836/22216.2%1.35

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand

The rider

Sean Levey · last 14 days: 6/36 · at Sandown Park: A/E 1.07 (n63) · with this yard: A/E 1.07 (n813)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.08 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.17s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

99.9%

One-paced late

Stride length3rd of 6

7.32 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

13 Jul 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm42nd7976.5True40.0 +0.35104.6+0.37

3 Jul 26Sandown Park1mGood41st7676Fast early39.1 -0.3494.5+0.12

13 Jun 26York1m177yGood47th7779—39.3 -0.30102.1+0.08

5 Jun 26Goodwood1mGd/Sft4—7775True37.9 +0.00101.1+0.49

23 May 26Salisbury1mGood42nd7776—37.9 +0.0596.9+0.16

9 May 26Lingfield1m2fGd/Frm43rd7779Fast early39.0 -0.26100.5-0.22

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.67par2f+0.94fast3f+0.82fast4f+0.57par5f+0.31par6f+0.30slow7f+0.09par1m+0.13slow

Timed runs 2026-05-09 to 2026-07-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

Read through a common rival

vs WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE) (read through ASTEVERDI, PORT ERIN, ARARAT, HAPPY BANNER) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs BUBBLES WONKY (IRE) (read through EPICTETUS, HALE END, SPIORADALTA, NOBLE HORIZON) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs SEA SUITE (IRE) (read through HALE END, HARSWELL RUBY, DOVEY MOON, NAKAAHA) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 76)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (89.0)Stable in form this week — 7 wins from 31 runsLost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.06 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, switched under 3f out, shaken up 2f out, challenged final 1f, led final 50 yds”

#2 WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 80 · Jason Watson / Charles Hills

MARKET drifting 5.9 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

86.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, proven at the trip; one-paced late — 6th of 6 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

86.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 86

Official mark (OR)

80 · last won off 77

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.38)

Days since last run

13

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.91% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 8 places on the course scale (ASCOT 1st → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 78.5 vs 75 last run (ASCOT · 11 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 4 · 7f · rated 868thClass 4 · 1m66y · rated 641stClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 863rdClass 4 · 1m · rated 851stClass 4 · 1m · rated 80

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Charles Hills · 741 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 4-5 company32/3509.1%0.714/8416.7%1.43

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of <=722/12218.0%1.035/4411.4%0.76

On turf ✦41/4319.5%0.98/1017.9%0.81

Too few runners to read reliably

At Sandown Park (small sample)2/258.0%0.991/616.7%4.22

Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)8/7311.0%0.752/1414.3%0.9

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand

The rider

Jason Watson · last 14 days: 5/21 · at Sandown Park: A/E 0.83 (n36) · with this yard: A/E 1.29 (n145)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.22 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.18s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

99.9%

One-paced late

Stride length1st of 6

7.63 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jul 26Ascot7fGd/Frm45th8075True40.5 -0.26100.0+0.03

9 May 26Nottingham1m75yGood48th8178True39.0 +0.0097.6+0.44

25 Apr 26Southwell7f14yStd41st7782Slow early39.6 +0.29104.6+0.18

14 Oct 25Lingfield1mStd43rd7676True42.7 +1.29100.6+0.15

15 Aug 25Newbury7fGd/Frm45th7574True40.8 +0.0099.3+0.00

2 Aug 25Newmarket7fGood46th7680True40.4 +0.0297.3+0.28

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.16fast2f+0.09par3f+0.08par4f+0.18par5f+0.23par6f+0.33slow7f+0.37slow

Timed runs 2025-08-02 to 2026-07-11. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

Read through a common rival

vs CRISTO (read through ASTEVERDI, PORT ERIN, ARARAT, HAPPY BANNER) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs SEA SUITE (IRE) (read through DARING LEGEND, CANCAN IN THE RAIN, DAPPER GUEST, CALYXOH) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (80 today vs 77)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (86.0)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.38)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“never going well, hung left over 3f out, always behind”

#3 SEA SUITE (IRE) MID

DRAW 2 · OR 76 · Luke Morris / James Owen

MARKET 8.8 · the market rates it a 11% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−

83.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, a yard in form; solid late gains (4th of 6 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

83.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 83

Official mark (OR)

76 · last won off 75

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 14 tries · in line with the market (1.01)

Days since last run

9

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.86% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 10 places on the course scale (YARMOUTH 19th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 3lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 78.5 vs 75.5 last run (YARMOUTH · 15 Jul 26)

Headgear

First-time visor · yard 16% with first-time gear (A/E 1.22)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 4 · 7f · rated 837thClass 4 · 1m · rated 631stClass 4 · 7f · rated 834thClass 4 · 7f · rated 813rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 82

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

James Owen · 1546 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦38/25714.8%1.0725/12020.8%1.23

At this time of year (Q3)46/36612.6%0.9211/5420.4%1.23

Too few runners to read reliably

At Sandown Park (small sample)1/166.2%0.710/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 84 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Luke Morris · last 14 days: 6/37 · at Sandown Park: A/E 1.41 (n28) · with this yard: A/E 1.13 (n113)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

+0.08 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.07s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

100.9%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length4th of 6

7.27 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Jul 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm42nd7675.5True42.0 +0.11100.1+0.07

18 Jun 26Yarmouth1mGd/Frm47th7777True40.2 +0.0096.9+0.10

28 May 26Yarmouth7fGd/Frm41st7577True40.7 +0.00103.9+0.06

20 May 26Kempton Park7fSlow44th7781Fast early40.3 +0.03101.4+0.25

26 Apr 26Wetherby1mGd/Frm53rd7472True40.1 +0.42101.3-0.04

12 Apr 26Musselburgh7f15yGood44th7474Fast early39.1 -0.09101.6-0.03

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.40slow2f+0.42slow3f+0.34par4f+0.28par5f+0.25par6f+0.17par7f+0.26par

Timed runs 2026-04-12 to 2026-07-15. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

Read through a common rival

vs CRISTO (read through HALE END, HARSWELL RUBY, DOVEY MOON, NAKAAHA) ≈ +1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs BUBBLES WONKY (IRE) (read through INFLUENTIAL, DANNICK, HALE END, GRABAJABBA) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs WINSTON'S WARRIOR (IRE) (read through DARING LEGEND, CANCAN IN THE RAIN, DAPPER GUEST, CALYXOH) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (83.0)Stable in form this week — 5 wins from 12 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.41x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 9 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, ridden 2f out, hung left over 1f out, weakened”

#4 LORCA'S WALTZ PROMINENT

DRAW 1 · OR 79 · Cieren Fallon / William Haggas

MARKET drifting 5.7 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

82.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 82

Official mark (OR)

79 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.03)

Days since last run

38

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s)
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 101.76% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 19 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 28th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Headgear

First-time tongue strap · yard 20% with first-time gear (A/E 1.32)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 4 · 7f88y · rated 825thClass 3 · 1m22y · rated 649thClass 4 · 1m132y · rated 51

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

William Haggas · 1588 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.126/619.8%0.43

Over 7-8f trips104/51320.3%1.023/15115.2%0.73

In fields of <=7 ✦94/35226.7%0.9125/11322.1%0.78

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦138/63321.8%0.9827/16016.9%0.79

In Class 4-5 company164/66824.6%1.0326/14218.3%0.8

Too few runners to read reliably

At Sandown Park (small sample)9/4221.4%0.940/70.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 80 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 3/27 · at Sandown Park: A/E 0.68 (n23) · with this yard: A/E 1.17 (n459)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.13 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

101.8%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 6

7.41 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Jun 26Beverley7f96yGood41st——True39.7 +0.6397.9-0.05

17 Jan 26Southwell1m13yStd35th——Slow early38.6 -0.84107.7-0.06

27 Dec 25Wolverhampton1m142ySlow49th——True37.6 -0.1799.7+0.25

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.24slow2f+0.60slow3f+0.65par4f+0.40par5f+0.29par6f+0.11par7fledfast

Timed runs 2025-12-27 to 2026-06-16. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayImproving fast — last run rated 82, 16pts above his recent average of 65.7Only 3 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 16 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“chased leaders, forced wide 2f out, edged ahead entering final 1f, all out”

#5 SWIPED MID

DRAW 6 · OR 78 · Rhys Clutterbuck / Ralph Beckett

MARKET backed 5.4 → 4.8 · the market rates it a 21% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 7pts off the top, backed since the morning; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

82.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 82

Official mark (OR)

78 · last won off 72

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (2.17)

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.45% (holds late)

Field strength · class context

Steps into 10lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 78.5 vs 68.5 last run (EPSOM DOWNS · 9 Jul 26)

Headgear

First-time visor · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.48)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 1m110y · rated 821stClass 6 · 1m · rated 802ndClass 5 · 7f · rated 715thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 425thClass 4 · 7f · rated 61

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ralph Beckett · 1391 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9817/6924.6%1.18

Too few runners to read reliably

At Sandown Park (small sample)7/4814.6%0.82/1118.2%1.09

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 83 is below the ~87.0 the race demands

The rider

Rhys Clutterbuck · last 14 days: 1/14 · at Sandown Park: A/E 0.75 (n23) · with this yard: A/E 1.49 (n27)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.12 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

101.5%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 6

7.21 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Frm51st7268.5—42.5 +0.51107.2+0.00—

1 Jul 26Bath1mFirm (Good To Firm In Places)—2nd——True38.8 +0.53104.1+0.05

13 Jun 26Bath1mGood61st6562True38.7 -0.10102.8+0.16

23 May 26Salisbury6f213yGood52nd6368.5—38.6 +0.4598.9+0.22

7 May 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm45th——True40.4 -0.4298.2-0.24

10 Aug 25Leicester7fFirm45th——Slow early40.9 -0.2597.6+0.12

Timed runs 2025-08-10 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

6lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 72)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 2 wins from 21 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-division, pushed along under 3f out, led over 1f out, asserted final ½f”

#6 BUBBLES WONKY (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 4 · OR 74 · Kieren Fox / Mark Pattinson

MARKET 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−

81.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 8pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.

FormLab Figure

81.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 89

Official mark (OR)

74 · last won off 80

Record at today's distance

1 win from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.52)

Days since last run

65

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 103.47% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 7 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Field strength · class context

Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 78.5 vs 72 last run (KEMPTON PARK · 20 May 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 813rdClass 5 · 1m · rated 814thClass 4 · 1m · rated 699thClass 2 · 1m2f · rated 747thClass 4 · 1m2f · rated 75

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Mark Pattinson · 152 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 13.3 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company2/345.9%2.40/210.0%0.0

Over 7-8f trips2/434.7%0.920/290.0%0.0

Coming back after 46 to 90 days2/258.0%2.020/100.0%0.0

Below their last winning mark1/333.3%3.710/160.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)4/2615.4%3.20/60.0%0.0

On turf3/2910.3%2.720/120.0%0.0

In fields of <=73/1915.8%3.910/110.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

At Sandown Park (small sample)0/40.0%0.00/10.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand

The rider

Kieren Fox · last 14 days: 0/8 · at Sandown Park: A/E 0 (n3)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 78.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

-0.09s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 6 of 6

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

103.5%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 6

6.90 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

20 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow53rd7472True38.8 +0.16104.3+0.00

4 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow53rd7571.5True38.3 -0.01104.0-0.15

12 Mar 26Chelmsford City1mStd44th7777True39.4 +0.00102.3-0.03

27 Feb 26Lingfield1m2fStd/Slow29th7993True41.0 -0.32107.8-0.23

15 Jan 26Chelmsford City1m2fStd47th8178True38.5 +0.00106.7-0.12

17 Oct 25Haydock Park7f212yGd/Sft39th8287True38.1 -0.2895.8+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.13fast2f+0.27slow3f+0.27slow4f+0.29slow5f+0.22par6f+0.10fast7f+0.13par1m+0.19par

Timed runs 2025-10-17 to 2026-05-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

Read through a common rival

vs CRISTO (read through EPICTETUS, HALE END, SPIORADALTA, NOBLE HORIZON) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs SEA SUITE (IRE) (read through INFLUENTIAL, DANNICK, HALE END, GRABAJABBA) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

6lb below his last winning mark (74 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“prominent, ridden around 2f out, kept on”