Class 4 · 1m1f209y · Good to Firm (Firm in places) · FIELD MEDIAN OR 76
GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 5 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 16:48 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm (Firm in places)
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (53% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, HOT AND COLD leads on 88, 8pts clear of BLUE NOON (IRE) — meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is CYRANO DE BERGERAC (IRE) — a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and finds plenty late. The market agrees — it makes HOT AND COLD the 46% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
HOT AND COLD
OR 81 · Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott Bt
MARKET 2.16 · the market rates it a 46% chance
88.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Drops in class todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.41x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
BLUE NOON (IRE)
OR 76 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (80.0)Stable in form this week — 7 wins from 31 runsRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
KNIGHTSAIL (IRE)
OR 76 · Jamie Spencer / David Menuisier
MARKET drifting 7.6 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
75.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (75.3)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1CYRANO DE BERGERAC (IRE)net +9drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here
2HOT AND COLDnet +7figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot, meets much weaker company by the marks − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3BLUE NOON (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87
HOT AND COLD carries rated well above the mark it last won from. CYRANO DE BERGERAC (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge HOT AND COLD lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 32% · n=158
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
CYRANO DE BERGERAC (IRE) FIGURE #4
John's runners on turf win 25.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. won last time out, and John is among the in-form yards this fortnight (17 runs).
ROKER ROAR (IRE) FIGURE #5
Andrew Balding's runners in Class 4-5 company win 24.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Andrew Balding's runners at this time of year (Q3) win 21.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 27% · midfield runners 25% (44 past C&D winners · no strong run-style bias). Stamina-sapping uphill finish — the defining feature. Winners’ energy signature: 49.69% spent early (band 48.81–50.65%, 63 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.45s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 79% · n=68
15 similar races at SANDOWN PARK, 9.4-10.4f, 3yo handicaps, Class 3-5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (53% from the first three favourites). 20% won last time out, 13% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
60% 15-45d
33% within 14d
7% 46-90d
Market
47% 4th+ in the market
27% favourite
13% 3rd favourite
LTO form
67% unplaced last time
20% won last time
13% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: HOT AND COLD is 0/1 on softer ground · BLUE NOON (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · KNIGHTSAIL (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CYRANO DE BERGERAC (IRE)PROMINENT45.8%112.6a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and finds plenty late
HOT AND COLDMID48.3%104.7a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
KNIGHTSAIL (IRE)HELD-UP47.0%111.3a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
BLUE NOON (IRE)PROMINENT49.2%105.6a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late
ROKER ROAR (IRE)PROMINENT49.3%102.9the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ROKER ROAR (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
BLUE NOON (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
CYRANO DE BERGERAC (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.27s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1HOT AND COLDMID
DRAW 3 · OR 81 · Luke Morris / Sir Mark Prescott Bt
MARKET 2.16 · the market rates it a 46% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
88.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 8pts clear of the next, meets much weaker company than last time on the ratings; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
88.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.71% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 8 places on the course scale (ASCOT 1st → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 7lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 76 vs 83 last run (ASCOT · 11 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Sir Mark Prescott Bt · 540 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)52/20625.2%1.26/2326.1%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark36/11331.9%1.124/2416.7%0.6
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦17/10416.3%0.854/2913.8%0.68
In Class 4-5 company60/29920.1%1.0910/7713.0%0.75
On turf52/21524.2%1.068/4219.0%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)4/1040.0%1.730/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Luke Morris · last 14 days: 6/37· at Sandown Park: A/E 1.41 (n28)· with this yard: A/E 0.93 (n438)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
104.7%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.84 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Salisbury1mGood51st7572.5Fast early37.6 -0.0096.4+0.00
18 Nov 25Newcastle1mSlow51st——True38.6 +0.00104.7-0.11
8 Nov 25Wolverhampton1m142ySlow56th——True39.6 +0.66108.0+0.58
24 Oct 25Doncaster7fHeavy55th——Slow early36.6 -0.82108.1+0.35
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledslow3fledslow4fledslow5fledslow6fledpar7fledvery fast1m+0.03very fast
Timed runs 2025-10-24 to 2026-07-11. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
6lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 75)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (88.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.41x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, shaken up 2f out, headed final 100 yds, kept on”
#2BLUE NOON (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 76 · Sean Levey / Richard Hannon
MARKET drifting 9.6 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
80.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 8pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; a match for the quickest early, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
80.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
76 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
36
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 2.4s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.58% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 14 places on the course scale (LINGFIELD PARK 23rd → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hannon · 2106 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Sandown Park5/588.6%0.946/2128.6%2.26
At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8115/8817.0%1.36
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips31/16319.0%1.547/749.5%0.78
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Sean Levey · last 14 days: 6/36· at Sandown Park: A/E 1.07 (n63)· with this yard: A/E 1.07 (n813)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
105.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Jun 26Lingfield1m2fGood53rd7574Fast early41.5 +0.27115.0+0.00
30 May 26Chester1m2f70yGood46th7779Slow early38.4 +0.03101.8+0.42
14 May 26Salisbury1m1f201yGood33rd——True37.8 -0.06106.0-0.12
1 May 26Newmarket1m2fGood24th——True38.1 -0.31103.5+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.12fast2f+0.23fast3f+0.51par4f+0.57slow5f+0.68very slow6f+0.67very slow7f+0.65very slow1m+0.56fast1m 1f+0.49very fast1m 2f+0.37very fast
Timed runs 2025-09-22 to 2026-06-18. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Rated #2 in this field (80.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 7 wins from 31 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden over 1f out, ran on”
#3KNIGHTSAIL (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR 76 · Jamie Spencer / David Menuisier
MARKET drifting 7.6 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
75.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 12.7pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
75.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
76 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
107
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 111.32% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 17 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time hood
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Menuisier · 495 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips ✦17/9717.5%1.369/5117.6%1.55
On turf ✦33/25213.1%1.0913/8016.2%1.36
In fields of <=7 ✦17/8919.1%1.26/3616.7%1.19
In Class 4-5 company ✦30/20814.4%1.2310/6116.4%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)23/15414.9%1.240/120.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)4/2416.7%1.191/911.1%1.14
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~80.0 demand
The rider
Jamie Spencer · last 14 days: 2/9· at Sandown Park: A/E 0.78 (n30)· with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.49s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
111.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.67very slow2f+0.64very slow3f+0.58slow4f+0.59very slow5f+0.54slow6f+0.49par7f+0.27slow1m+0.31very fast1m 1f+0.47very fast1m 2f+0.86very fast
Timed runs 2025-09-24 to 2026-04-08. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
12 Oct 25 · 1m1f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 7th, 9.5L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+9.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs
Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (75.3)Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 3.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, held up, progress before halfway, effort 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, not quicken”
#4CYRANO DE BERGERAC (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 81 · Luke Catton / John & Thady Gosden
MARKET backed 3.95 → 2.88 · the market rates it a 35% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 14pts off the top, backed since the morning; a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and finds plenty late.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
81 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · below market expectation (0.69)
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) Usually races front-runner (galloped on)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 112.64% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 17 places on the course scale (NOTTINGHAM 26th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Thady Gosden · 1251 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)72/36519.7%0.9613/2650.0%1.93
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)14/5923.7%1.14/1921.1%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 79 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
The rider
Luke Catton · last 14 days: 0/1· at Sandown Park: A/E 2.68 (n6)· with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n38)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.93 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.27s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
112.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
6.93 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Nottingham1m2f50yGood31st——Slow early39.7 +0.60113.3-0.14
8 Jun 26Windsor1m2fGd/Sft32nd——True39.2 +0.90112.8+0.23
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledslow2fledslow3fledvery slow4fledslow5f+0.01very slow6f+0.06very slow7fledpar1mledvery fast1m 1fledvery fast1m 2fledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-04-28 to 2026-06-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 6 wins from 10 runsJockey goes well at this track (2.68x market expectation)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, shaken up under 3f out, in command final 1f, eased close home”
#5ROKER ROAR (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 72 · Jason Watson / Andrew Balding
MARKET drifting 20 → 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
62.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 25.7pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
62.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
72 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
184
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.5s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.91% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 7 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → SANDOWN PARK 9th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 184 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2435 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 180 days+16/8020.0%0.9220/6729.9%1.32
In Class 4-5 company ✦184/96219.1%1.0357/23124.7%1.16
Too few runners to read reliably
At Sandown Park (small sample)12/8114.8%0.911/147.1%0.38
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 74 is below the ~80.0 the race demands
The rider
Jason Watson · last 14 days: 5/21· at Sandown Park: A/E 0.83 (n36)· with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n303)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 76graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.31 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.1 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
-0.12s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 2
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
102.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 Jan 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow33rd——True37.0 -0.94102.4-0.14
6 Nov 25Newcastle1mSlow54th——True39.1 +0.32103.5-0.09
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-11-06 to 2026-01-21 · last timed run 184 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
12 Oct 25 · 1m1f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 3rd, 9.5L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-9.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs
Drops in class todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.74 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 184 days offRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits