FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chepstow · 20:46
Class 6 · 1m2f · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 53
GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 9 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 16:48 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
TIME FOR ACTION is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here spend about 48% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, FOZZY OSBOURNE leads on 65, 1pts clear of MIDNIGHT MEDIA — a yard in form. The case against the top pick: its figure was earned on a different surface and habitually slow from the stalls. The shape danger is TIGER BEETLE — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making MIDNIGHT MEDIA the 26% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 9
FOZZY OSBOURNE
OR 57 · Joe Leavy / Grace Harris
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−The top rating in this field (65.0)Runs Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
MIDNIGHT MEDIA
OR 59 · Ryan Kavanagh / William Muir & Chris Grassick
MARKET 3.8 · the market rates it a 26% chance
64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (64.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
CRIMSON ROAD (IRE)
OR 58 · William Carson / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−22lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (61.0)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.67)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1BRODIE'S BOY (FR)net +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup, meets much weaker company by the marks
2CRIMSON ROAD (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, meets much weaker company by the marks − habitually slow away, burns early and empties
3TIGER BEETLEnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87
FOZZY OSBOURNE carries its figure was earned on a different surface and habitually slow from the stalls. BRODIE'S BOY (FR) is the one to beat it — an edge FOZZY OSBOURNE lacks: dropping in class.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 32% · n=158
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
BRODIE'S BOY (FR)  FIGURE #5
Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners dropping in class win 14.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
TIGER BEETLE  FIGURE #6
Thomas Faulkner's runners in Class 6-7 company win 19.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Thomas Faulkner's runners kept to the same class win 16.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 33% · prominent racers 26% (128 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Winners’ energy signature: 47.76% spent early (band 46.29–47.88%, 8 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.29s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331 Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–9).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: FOZZY OSBOURNE is 0/1 on softer ground · MIDNIGHT MEDIA is unraced on softer ground · CRIMSON ROAD (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CRIMSON ROAD (IRE) HELD-UP 50.2% 99.2 one-paced late — 8th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
BRODIE'S BOY (FR) MID 48.8% 106.6 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
FOZZY OSBOURNE HELD-UP 49.9% 101.0 solid late gains (6th of 9 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
TIGER BEETLE HELD-UP 46.4% 109.1 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MIDNIGHT MEDIA MID 48.6% 106.2 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
CITY ESCAPE (IRE) HELD-UP 48.5% 104.3 a genuine turn of foot — 5th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
PROPHET SQUEEZE (IRE) HELD-UP 48.1% 105.3 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
ALL ABOUT GEORGE MID 50.9% 99.3 one-paced late — 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
TIME FOR ACTION FRONT 51.9% 95.5 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
TIME FOR ACTIONFRONTtypically ~1.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
TIME FOR ACTION is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 FOZZY OSBOURNE HELD-UP
DRAW 9 · OR 57 · Joe Leavy / Grace Harris
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, a yard in form; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 65
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.04% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
3rdClass 6 · 1m22y · rated 656thClass 4 · 7f88y · rated 525thClass 4 · 6f · rated 309thClass 4 · 6f · rated 48
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FOZZY OSBOURNEneeds 65–67best 652026-05-23 · TFR 48 · 6f · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-06-01 · TFR 30 · 6f · Firm · C4 · off-trip2026-06-23 · TFR 52 · 7f79y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-07-08 · TFR 65 · 1m13y · Gd/Frm · C623 May 268 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 453 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦13/1827.1%1.038/5813.8%1.43
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.959/6513.8%1.19
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)2/219.5%1.571/333.3%1.82
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 65 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Joe Leavy · last 14 days: 2/23 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.29 (n41) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields8th of 9
-0.22 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 9
+0.49s
Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 9
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 9
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jul 26Chepstow1m14yGd/Frm63rd5555.5Fast early42.7 +0.0497.3—
23 Jun 26Ffos Las7f80yGood46th——Slow early40.2 +0.00107.8+0.37
1 Jun 26Newbury6fFirm45th——True40.6 -0.4896.9+0.09
23 May 26Salisbury6fGood49th———37.4 -0.45102.2+1.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.23fast2f+0.42par3f+0.71par4f+1.10par5f+1.37par6f+1.07par7f+0.29par1m+0.05slow
Timed runs 2026-05-23 to 2026-07-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
PROPHET SQUEEZE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L ahead on today's terms · confirms
23 Jun 26 · 7f88y · Good — finished 6th vs 7th, 1L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CITY ESCAPE (IRE) (read through GALACTIC GLOW, BOBBY DASSLER) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (8f→10f) — earned under different conditionsThe top rating in this field (65.0)Improving fast — last run rated 65, 16pts above his recent average of 49.0Lost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“rear, left behind soon after halfway”
#2 MIDNIGHT MEDIA MID
DRAW 6 · OR 59 · Ryan Kavanagh / William Muir & Chris Grassick
MARKET 3.8 · the market rates it a 26% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, in form; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
64.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
1 win from 4 tries · beats market expectation (2.67)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.15% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 6 · 1m132y · rated 642ndClass 4 · 1m1f110y · rated 639thClass 6 · 1m3f88y · rated 514thClass 5 · 1m132y · rated 529thClass 4 · 1m · rated 48
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MIDNIGHT MEDIAneeds 65–67best 642026-02-18 · TFR 1 · 7f · Slow · C4 · off-trip2026-03-25 · TFR 61 · 1m · Slow · C4 · off-trip2026-04-06 · TFR 48 · 1m · Slow · C4 · off-trip2026-05-05 · TFR 52 · 1m143y · Std · C52026-05-23 · TFR 51 · 1m3f99y · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-28 · TFR 63 · 1m1f103y · Std · C42026-07-06 · TFR 64 · 1m143y · Std · C618 Feb 266 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Muir & Chris Grassick · 476 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days18/2148.4%0.776/5810.3%1.2
In fields of 8-1122/19311.4%1.084/458.9%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark14/8516.5%1.311/333.0%0.26
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)0/20.0%0.01/520.0%1.92
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 3/14 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.06 (n13) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n9)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields4th of 9
+0.16 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 9
+0.10s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 9
106.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 9
7.22 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd61st5552True38.7 +1.05105.8+0.01
28 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd42nd——Slow early40.4 +0.85110.4+0.02
23 May 26Windsor1m3f99yGd/Frm69th6056.5—37.4 -0.40102.1+0.00
5 May 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd54th——Slow early39.2 -0.20111.1+0.14
6 Apr 26Kempton Park1mSlow49th——True38.2 -0.20102.2+0.06
25 Mar 26Kempton Park1mSlow45th——True38.5 -0.16105.2+0.37
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.11fast2f+0.32slow3f+0.29slow4f+0.23slow5f+0.21par6f+0.20fast7f+0.13par1mledfast1m 1fledfast
Timed runs 2026-03-25 to 2026-07-06. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs CITY ESCAPE (IRE) (read through CELEBRATING ETHEL, LHEBAYEB) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (59 today vs 55)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (64.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“dwelt, rear, never dangerous”
#3 CRIMSON ROAD (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 58 · William Carson / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
61.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 4pts off the top, proven at the trip; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.67)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s)
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.25% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 5lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 53 vs 58 last run (NOTTINGHAM · 2 Jul 26)
Class Reversion Watch [P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP
This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.
Best ever · vs now
TFR 88 at its peak · running to 61 now
a 27pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing
The handicapper's mark
22lb LOWER than the mark it last WON from (58 today · won off 80)
it has already won a race from a HIGHER mark than today's — the handicapper has given it a real chance
Raw speed
1st fastest of 9 here
on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone
Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 619thClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 405thClass 5 · 1m · rated 567thClass 5 · 1m · rated 335thClass 5 · 1m1f198y · rated 18
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CRIMSON ROAD (IRE)best 88needs 65–672025-03-30 · TFR 59 · 1m2f44y · Good · C32025-04-21 · TFR 68 · 1m · Gd/Frm · C3 · off-trip2025-05-10 · TFR 73 · 1m75y · Gd/Frm · C42025-05-21 · TFR 70 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C42025-07-05 · TFR 18 · 1m1f207y · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-20 · TFR 33 · 1m · Good · C5 · off-trip2025-10-16 · TFR 74 · 2m1f33y · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-10-30 · TFR 80 · 2m189y · Good · C4 · off-trip2026-04-05 · TFR 56 · 1m · Good · C5 · off-trip2026-05-07 · TFR 40 · 1m31y · Gd/Frm · C52026-07-02 · TFR 61 · 1m2f51y · Gd/Frm · C630 Mar 252 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Rhys Flint · 188 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chepstow4/1040.0%2.220/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/667.6%0.980/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/719.9%1.090/100.0%0.0
On turf11/1288.6%1.081/412.4%0.33
In fields of 8-114/735.5%0.711/283.6%0.53
In Class 6-7 company9/6414.1%1.311/244.2%0.57
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)1/254.0%0.60/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
William Carson · last 14 days: 0/8 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.03 (n32) · with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields1st of 9
+0.29 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 9
+0.32s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed8th of 9
99.2%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 9
7.47 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Nottingham1m2f50yGd/Frm64th5958True38.9 +0.77105.2+0.35
7 May 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm59th6272True40.0 +0.4496.8+0.53
5 Apr 26Bath1mGood55th6568True38.8 +0.4299.1+0.20
20 Jul 25Redcar1mGood57th6866Fast early40.1 -0.0591.2+0.26
21 May 25Ayr1m2fGd/Frm47th7575True38.8 -0.41102.1+0.07
10 May 25Nottingham1m75yGd/Frm48th7984True40.2 +0.57101.1+0.50
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.89slow2f+0.78slow3f+0.76par4f+0.80par5f+0.88fast6f+0.72par7f+0.66slow1m+0.25fast1m 1f+0.03par1m 2f+0.71par
Timed runs 2025-05-10 to 2026-07-02. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs TIGER BEETLE (read through SPEC OF LIGHT, LAW SUPREME, THE DARK BARON) ≈ +0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
22lb below his last winning mark (58 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (61.0)Improving fast — last run rated 61, 8pts above his recent average of 52.3Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.67)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“held up, progress over 2f out, threatened briefly, not quicken 1f out”
#4 CITY ESCAPE (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 49 · Kieran O'Neill / Nikki Evans
MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
57.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 8pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
57.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
49 · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 35 tries · beats market expectation (1.09)
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s)
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.34% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time eyeshields
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 575thClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 526thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 576thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 513rdClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 59
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CITY ESCAPE (IRE)best 68needs 65–672025-01-28 · TFR 53 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-02-17 · TFR 54 · 1m1f103y · Std/Slow · C62025-02-25 · TFR 62 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-03-03 · TFR 64 · 1m1f103y · Std/Slow · C62025-03-11 · TFR 62 · 1m1f103y · Std · C62025-03-14 · TFR 60 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-04-05 · TFR 58 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-04-21 · TFR 58 · 1m1f103y · Std · C62025-05-12 · TFR 62 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62025-06-03 · TFR 59 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C52025-06-06 · TFR 61 · 1m2f37y · Gd/Frm · C62025-06-30 · TFR 52 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C62025-10-04 · TFR 59 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C62026-05-09 · TFR 51 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C62026-06-02 · TFR 57 · 1m1f103y · Std · C62026-06-05 · TFR 52 · 1m2f37y · Good · C62026-07-04 · TFR 57 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C628 Jan 254 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Nikki Evans · 126 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark0/100.0%0.01/520.0%3.91
Coming back after 15 to 45 days3/466.5%0.942/1315.4%3.46
In fields of 8-113/605.0%0.762/229.1%2.61
On turf1/432.3%0.482/1216.7%2.17
In Class 6-7 company3/674.5%0.673/2810.7%2.04
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips0/50.0%0.00/70.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)0/10.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)1/323.1%0.540/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/16 · at Chepstow: A/E 0.63 (n25) · with this yard: A/E 5.09 (n13)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 9
+0.24 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 9
+0.42s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 9
104.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 9
7.23 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Leicester1m2fGd/Frm65th5050.5—38.9 -0.11100.7+0.25—
5 Jun 26Bath1m2f37yGood65th5353True38.3 +0.00101.3+0.14
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd66th5354True39.9 +0.14107.6+0.44
9 May 26Leicester1m2fGd/Frm66th5449True37.3 -0.30100.8+0.50
4 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow63rd5453.5True39.0 +1.49106.0+0.52
30 Jun 25Ffos Las1m2fGd/Sft67th5657Slow early39.4 +0.21109.6+0.64
Timed runs 2025-06-30 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs PROPHET SQUEEZE (IRE) (read through GERT LUSH, RACING DEMON) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs ALL ABOUT GEORGE (read through BLUE HERO, ROMAN SECRET, SIR LAURENCE GRAFF) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FOZZY OSBOURNE (read through GALACTIC GLOW, BOBBY DASSLER) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs MIDNIGHT MEDIA (read through CELEBRATING ETHEL, LHEBAYEB) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (49 today vs 55)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along 3f out, challenged over 1f out, carried head bit awkwardly, no extra late on”
#5 BRODIE'S BOY (FR) MID
DRAW 8 · OR 58 · George Wood / Tony Carroll
MARKET 5.7 · the market rates it a 17% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 9pts off the top, dropping in class; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
58 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 10 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.59% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
drops 11 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 11lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 53 vs 64 last run (KEMPTON PARK · 8 Jul 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 0.96)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 5 · 1m3f · rated 564thClass 5 · 1m3f · rated 628thClass 5 · 1m2f · rated 384thClass 5 · 1m3f · rated 653rdClass 5 · 1m4f44y · rated 65
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for BRODIE'S BOY (FR)best 77needs 65–672025-01-24 · TFR 61 · 1m4f · Std · C5 · off-trip2025-02-11 · TFR 74 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C4 · off-trip2025-04-15 · TFR 59 · 1m4f · Std · C5 · off-trip2025-07-31 · TFR 61 · 1m2f18y · Gd/Sft · C52025-09-05 · TFR 74 · 1m4f · Std · C5 · off-trip2025-09-28 · TFR 53 · 1m4f · Good · C4 · off-trip2025-10-27 · TFR 71 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-11-25 · TFR 71 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-12-08 · TFR 52 · 1m4f · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-01-03 · TFR 68 · 1m3f22y · Std · C52026-01-20 · TFR 59 · 1m3f22y · Std · C52026-02-07 · TFR 57 · 1m3f22y · Std · C62026-02-16 · TFR 65 · 1m4f51y · Std · C5 · off-trip2026-03-18 · TFR 65 · 1m3f · Slow · C52026-06-01 · TFR 38 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-23 · TFR 62 · 1m3f · Gd/Frm · C52026-07-08 · TFR 56 · 1m3f · Slow · C524 Jan 258 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2398 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow0/170.0%0.07/2429.2%1.63
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24119.9%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
George Wood · last 14 days: 2/30 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.2 (n6) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields6th of 9
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 9
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 9
106.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 9
7.05 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jul 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow57th5964—38.1 -0.20114.8+0.00—
23 Jun 26Newbury1m3fGd/Frm54th6072—39.4 +0.36100.2+0.15
1 Jun 26Windsor1m2fGd/Frm58th6264.5True39.3 -0.37105.1+0.45
18 Mar 26Kempton Park1m3fSlow54th6267True39.7 +0.11113.6+0.66
16 Feb 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd53rd6364True37.4 +0.14104.6+0.09
7 Feb 26Southwell1m3f23yStd65th6563Slow early37.2 -0.27101.2+0.00
Timed runs 2026-02-07 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs TIGER BEETLE (read through WOOD WHISPERER, SHADY BAY, ALTA RICA, PARTY ISLAND) ≈ +4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayStable in form this week — 2 wins from 15 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“tracked pace, dropped away approaching final 1f”
#6 TIGER BEETLE HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 2 · OR 50 · Zoe Lewis / Thomas Faulkner
MARKET 25 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 7+ / 1−
51 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 14pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
51 · ranked #6 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
50 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
1 win from 23 tries · below market expectation (0.51)
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.2s · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 109.1% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 407thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 565thClass 6 · 1m4f44y · rated 573rdClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 577thClass 6 · 1m1f110y · rated 57
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TIGER BEETLEbest 79needs 65–672025-09-24 · TFR 11 · 1m3f · Slow · C42025-10-09 · TFR 27 · 1m2f37y · Good · C52025-11-03 · TFR 17 · 1m1f103y · Slow · C52025-11-24 · TFR 51 · 1m6f · Std/Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-12-20 · TFR 46 · 1m4f51y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2026-02-02 · TFR 53 · 1m1f103y · Std · C62026-02-17 · TFR 57 · 1m1f103y · Std · C62026-03-31 · TFR 57 · 1m1f103y · Std · C62026-04-10 · TFR 57 · 1m4f51y · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-05-11 · TFR 56 · 1m1f103y · Std · C62026-06-15 · TFR 40 · 1m2f · Good · C624 Sep 2515 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Thomas Faulkner · 251 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)1/512.0%0.293/837.5%2.17
In Class 6-7 company ✦9/8810.2%1.2112/6319.0%1.69
Below their last winning mark2/1612.5%1.643/2512.0%1.51
At Chepstow0/110.0%0.02/1315.4%1.5
In fields of 8-11 ✦8/918.8%1.0410/6714.9%1.47
On turf2/434.7%0.635/3016.7%1.3
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/657.7%0.956/4314.0%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips6/2623.1%2.371/205.0%0.51
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~65.0 demand
The rider
Zoe Lewis · last 14 days: 0/2 · at Chepstow: A/E 3.7 (n6) · with this yard: A/E 1.52 (n55)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields5th of 9
+0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 9
+0.50s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 9
109.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 9
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jun 26Chepstow1m2fGood68th5252True39.7 -0.07109.4+0.88
11 May 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd67th5357Slow early39.2 -0.01108.4+0.26
10 Apr 26Wolverhampton1m4f51yStd65th5552True38.3 +0.62109.0+0.55
31 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd63rd5554True38.5 -0.12108.9+0.39
17 Feb 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd67th5756Slow early40.5 +0.44115.3+0.32
2 Feb 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd68th6061Fast early37.7 +0.00103.6+0.57
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.85slow2f+0.98very slow3f+0.87very slow4f+1.03very slow5f+0.32very fast6fledvery fast7f+0.02very fast1m+0.16very fast1m 1f+0.63fast1m 2f+1.88slow
Timed runs 2026-02-02 to 2026-06-15. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs BRODIE'S BOY (FR) (read through WOOD WHISPERER, SHADY BAY, ALTA RICA, PARTY ISLAND) ≈ -4.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs CRIMSON ROAD (IRE) (read through SPEC OF LIGHT, LAW SUPREME, THE DARK BARON) ≈ -0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs CITY ESCAPE (IRE) (read through REVICH, MAN IS KING, VERSATILE, POMERIGGIO) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
18lb below his last winning mark (50 today vs 68)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayJockey goes well at this track (3.7x market expectation)Lost roughly 4.0 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“dwelt, rear, headway approaching straight, dropped away from 2f out”
#7 TIME FOR ACTION FRONT
DRAW 4 · OR 53 · Jack Doughty / David Flood
MARKET 26 · the market rates it a 4% chance
44.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 20.3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
44.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 58
Official mark (OR)
53 · last won off 51
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
Last time: 5.9s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 95.48% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 9lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 53 vs 62 last run (BATH · 13 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
14thClass 6 · 1m · rated —7thClass 6 · 1m · rated 275thClass 6 · 1m2f · rated 491stClass 6 · 1m · rated 582ndClass 6 · 1m · rated 49
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TIME FOR ACTIONneeds 65–67best 582025-07-22 · TFR 43 · 7f35y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-07-30 · TFR 40 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C4 · off-trip2025-09-16 · TFR 35 · 6f20y · Slow · C5 · off-trip2025-10-20 · TFR 49 · 1m · Soft · C6 · off-trip2025-10-30 · TFR 58 · 1m · Soft · C6 · off-trip2025-11-06 · TFR 49 · 1m2f · Slow · C62025-12-02 · TFR 27 · 1m · Std · C622 Jul 252 Dec 25
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 234 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Flood
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 59 is below the ~65.0 the race demands
The rider
Jack Doughty · last 14 days: 0/17 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.36 (n16) · with this yard: A/E 2.49 (n6)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 9
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 37.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 9
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 6
Finish · closing speed9th of 9
95.5%
One-paced late
Stride length9th of 9
6.49 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Bath1mGood614th5562True40.0 +1.2086.2+0.03
2 Dec 25Newcastle1mStd67th5655True38.9 +0.2092.8+0.00
6 Nov 25Chelmsford City1m2fSlow65th5757True37.0 -0.08103.2+0.00
30 Oct 25Bath1mSoft61st5163True37.3 +0.2596.3-0.11
20 Oct 25Bath1mSoft62nd5150.5True37.3 -0.1093.9+0.02
16 Sep 25Wolverhampton6f20ySlow59th——True40.0 +0.14100.4+0.07
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledpar3fledpar4fledslow5fledslow6f+0.48very slow7f+2.16very slow1m+6.94very slow
Timed runs 2025-09-16 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · never met today's rivals
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayOnly 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.36x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led until under 3f out, weakened”
#8 PROPHET SQUEEZE (IRE) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 47 · Mason Paetel / Barry John Murphy
MARKET 120 · the market rates it a 1% chance
44.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 21pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
44.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 44
Official mark (OR)
47 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races held-up (one-paced) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.35% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 7 places on the course scale (FFOS LAS 34th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time hood
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
DNFClass 6 · 1m2f · rated —7thClass 4 · 7f88y · rated 4411thClass 3 · 1m2f · rated 347thClass 3 · 1m2f · rated 15
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PROPHET SQUEEZE (IRE)needs 65–67best 442026-05-29 · TFR 15 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm · C32026-06-08 · TFR 34 · 1m2f · Gd/Sft · C32026-06-23 · TFR 44 · 7f79y · Good · C4 · off-trip29 May 2623 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Barry John Murphy
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 44 is below the ~65.0 the race demands
The rider
Mason Paetel · last 14 days: 3/17 · at Chepstow: A/E 0.92 (n8) · with this yard: A/E 4.16 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields9th of 9
-1.58 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 9
+0.76s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 9
105.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 9
6.75 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
23 Jun 26Ffos Las7f80yGood47th——Slow early39.9 -0.27107.4+0.79
8 Jun 26Windsor1m2fGd/Sft311th——True37.0 -1.31107.1+0.73
29 May 26Chepstow1m2fGd/Frm37th——Slow early37.7 -3.17101.6—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.24very slow2f+1.03slow3f+1.02par4f+0.64par5f+0.67par6f+1.22par7f+2.13par
Timed runs 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-23. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
FOZZY OSBOURNE · 1 meeting≈ 1.0L behind on today's terms · reverses
23 Jun 26 · 7f88y · Good — finished 7th vs 6th, 1L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CITY ESCAPE (IRE) (read through GERT LUSH, RACING DEMON) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Improving fast — last run rated 44, 13pts above his recent average of 31.0Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 3.5 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 10 days ago
LTO comment
“refused to race”
#9 ALL ABOUT GEORGE MID
DRAW 3 · OR 45 · Josephine Gordon / Keiran Burke
MARKET 18 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
42.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 23pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
42.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 48
Official mark (OR)
45 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.33% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 9 places on the course scale (BRIGHTON 36th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 1m1f198y · rated 427thClass 6 · 1m3f132y · rated 3714thClass 6 · 1m4f · rated 159thClass 6 · 1m · rated 446thClass 4 · 1m1f198y · rated 48
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for ALL ABOUT GEORGEneeds 65–67best 482025-06-23 · TFR 45 · 1m31y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-29 · TFR 48 · 1m1f200y · Soft · C42025-09-13 · TFR 44 · 1m · Gd/Sft · C6 · off-trip2025-10-14 · TFR 15 · 1m4f · Std · C6 · off-trip2026-06-13 · TFR 37 · 1m3f136y · Good · C62026-07-07 · TFR 42 · 1m1f207y · Gd/Frm · C623 Jun 257 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Keiran Burke · 174 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips0/80.0%0.00/80.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)5/3912.8%1.560/60.0%0.0
On turf3/348.8%0.970/130.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days8/5016.0%1.512/316.5%0.7
In Class 6-7 company6/4812.5%1.072/306.7%0.73
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)1/250.0%1.68—
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 49 is below the ~65.0 the race demands
The rider
Josephine Gordon · last 14 days: 0/2 · with this yard: A/E 1.57 (n109)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 53 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields7th of 9
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 9
+0.45s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed7th of 9
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 9
7.14 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Jul 26Brighton1m1f207yGd/Frm65th——True40.8 -0.55101.9+0.01
13 Jun 26Bath1m3f137yGood67th4550True38.2 +0.3696.2+0.22
14 Oct 25Lingfield1m4fStd614th4650.5True41.3 +0.9894.7+0.25
13 Sep 25Bath1mGd/Sft69th4848True38.6 -0.3197.0+0.66
23 Jun 25Windsor1m31yGd/Frm512th——True40.1 +0.25105.8+0.85
17 Feb 25Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd/Slow58th——True36.5 -1.01100.4+0.73
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.16par2f+0.11par3f+0.11very slow4f+0.13slow5f+0.08slow6fledvery fast7f+0.07par1m+0.15par1m 1f+0.63slow1m 2f+1.33par
Timed runs 2025-02-17 to 2026-07-07. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs CITY ESCAPE (IRE) (read through BLUE HERO, ROMAN SECRET, SIR LAURENCE GRAFF) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Improving fast — last run rated 42, 10pts above his recent average of 31.3Only 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, effort over 2f out, edged right, weakened over 1f out”