FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Chepstow · 20:11
Class 6 · 5f15y · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 58
GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 16:48 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (75% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, LEVEL UP (IRE) leads on 72, 2pts clear of SO SMART (IRE) — one of the two strongest finishers here. The case against the top pick: tends to burn early and empty out. The market agrees — it makes LEVEL UP (IRE) the 34% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 6
LEVEL UP (IRE)
OR 63 · Ashley Lewis / David Evans
MARKET 2.88 · the market rates it a 34% chance
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (64 tries, beats market expectation at 1.42)Race-fit — ran 4 days ago
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
SO SMART (IRE)
OR 58 · Ryan Kavanagh / Grace Harris
MARKET 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (70.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days ago
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE)
OR 65 · Harry Vigors / Grace Harris
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
69.3 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (69.3)Proven over the trip (40 tries, beats market expectation at 1.24)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SO SMART (IRE)net +9figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven on the going − burns early and empties
2LEVEL UP (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip − burns early and empties
3SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE)net +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard hot − behind rivals met on collateral form, burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87
LEVEL UP (IRE) carries tends to burn early and empty out. SO SMART (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge LEVEL UP (IRE) lacks: flagged on our watch list.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 32% · n=158
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
SON OF ASTAR  FIGURE #5
Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
RIVER EDGE  FIGURE #6
Christopher Mason's runners on turf win 26.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 45% · prominent racers 28% (162 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Draw: Round course inconclusive. straight sprint course: high numbers favoured when stalls stands-side, esp. on soft. Winners’ energy signature: 49.12% spent early (band 47.93–49.38%, 10 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~2 at halfway, 0.13s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 79% · n=68
16 similar races at CHEPSTOW, 4.1-6.1f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-7, all months, 2025-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (75% from the first three favourites). 12% won last time out, 25% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
44% 6yo+
25% 3yo
19% 5yo
Last ran
44% within 14d
44% 15-45d
12% 91d+
Market
38% 3rd favourite
31% favourite
25% 4th+ in the market
LTO form
62% unplaced last time
25% placed last time
12% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: LEVEL UP (IRE) is 2/10 on softer ground · SO SMART (IRE) is 1/16 on softer ground · SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) is 1/6 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
TRAFALGER PROMINENT 50.0% 98.8 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) MID 51.4% 97.4 held up without the late gear (6th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
LEVEL UP (IRE) MID 50.7% 98.9 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SO SMART (IRE) FRONT 50.6% 97.8 a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
SON OF ASTAR HELD-UP 50.0% 99.9 the best late speed in a one-paced field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SUNDIATA KEITA (IRE) MID 51.5% 98.0 held up without the late gear (4th of 7 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
RIVER EDGE PROMINENT 49.9% 96.7 just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
TRAFALGERPROMINENTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.12s off the field’s best
SO SMART (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
RIVER EDGEPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 LEVEL UP (IRE) MID
DRAW 6 · OR 63 · Ashley Lewis / David Evans
MARKET 2.88 · the market rates it a 34% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
72.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 2pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 64
Record at today's distance
10 wins from 64 tries · beats market expectation (1.42)
Days since last run
4
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.88% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 4lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 58 vs 62 last run (BEVERLEY · 20 Jul 26)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 722ndClass 6 · 5f22y · rated 722ndClass 6 · 5f · rated 725thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 573rdClass 5 · 5f · rated 70
Career sheet · last 18 months · 33 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for LEVEL UP (IRE)best 87needs 70–722025-01-30 · TFR 68 · 4f213y · Std · C62025-02-03 · TFR 53 · 5f22y · Std · C62025-02-24 · TFR 66 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-03-22 · TFR 65 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-04-07 · TFR 58 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-05-10 · TFR 53 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-23 · TFR 68 · 5f15y · Good · C52025-06-26 · TFR 75 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-02 · TFR 75 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-19 · TFR 47 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-26 · TFR 68 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-09 · TFR 69 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-29 · TFR 58 · 5f11y · Soft · C52025-09-06 · TFR 66 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-09-21 · TFR 66 · 4f213y · Std · C52025-10-04 · TFR 55 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-10-09 · TFR 71 · 5f · Slow · C62025-10-18 · TFR 57 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-11-06 · TFR 63 · 5f · Slow · C52025-12-22 · TFR 64 · 5f · Std/Slow · C62025-12-26 · TFR 55 · 5f22y · Slow · C52026-01-10 · TFR 67 · 5f · Std · C52026-01-22 · TFR 59 · 4f213y · Std · C62026-01-29 · TFR 52 · 5f · Std · C62026-03-05 · TFR 67 · 5f · Std · C42026-04-05 · TFR 67 · 5f11y · Good · C62026-04-18 · TFR 69 · 5f9y · Good · C62026-05-19 · TFR 64 · 5f · Good · C62026-05-26 · TFR 70 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-15 · TFR 57 · 5f15y · Good · C52026-06-17 · TFR 72 · 5f · Soft · C62026-06-28 · TFR 72 · 5f22y · Std · C62026-07-20 · TFR 72 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C630 Jan 2520 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Evans · 896 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips31/3409.1%0.8912/8614.0%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦29/23412.4%0.93/595.1%0.4
Coming back after within 7 days9/4719.1%1.192/248.3%0.45
At this time of year (Q3)19/2069.2%0.922/287.1%0.49
In fields of <=723/14316.1%1.127/6111.5%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)2/1414.3%1.411/119.1%0.66
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
The rider
Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 7/25 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.12 (n19) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 58 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
-0.03s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 5
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
98.9%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 7
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jul 26Beverley5fGd/Frm62nd6362—40.5 +0.47102.2-0.18—
28 Jun 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd62nd6363True40.3 +0.12100.5-0.02
17 Jun 26Ffos Las5fSoft62nd63—Fast early41.4 +0.2395.9+0.00
15 Jun 26Chepstow5f16yGood55th6362True42.5 -0.7898.8+0.00
26 May 26Bath5f10yGd/Frm53rd6465.5True41.8 +0.2898.9+0.05
19 May 26Lingfield4f217yGood63rd6461Fast early42.1 -0.2397.0+0.00
Timed runs 2026-05-19 to 2026-07-20. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
SO SMART (IRE) · 6 meetings≈ 0.9L ahead on today's terms · confirms
17 Jun 26 · 5f · Soft — finished 2nd vs 3rd, 4L ahead · OR 63 v 59
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.9L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 Jun 26 · 5f22y · Good — finished 5th vs 3rd, 2.2L behind · OR 63 v 62 · race median 62 (today 58)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SON OF ASTAR (read through SYMBOL OF HOPE, FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, SMOOTH SILESIE, CABEZA DE LLAVE) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs SUNDIATA KEITA (IRE) (read through CONNIE'S ROSE, DIAMONDSINTHESAND, SYMBOL OF HOPE, SILKY ROBIN) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs TRAFALGER (read through SECRET HANDSHEIKH, FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, FAUSTUS, LIPSINK) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (72.0)Proven over the trip (64 tries, beats market expectation at 1.42)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 4 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led, ridden over 1f out, headed final 1f, no extra”
#2 SO SMART (IRE) FRONT DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 2 · OR 58 · Ryan Kavanagh / Grace Harris
MARKET 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 2pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
70.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 90
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 40 tries · below market expectation (0.89)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s)
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Front-runner · finishing speed 97.77% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 703rdClass 6 · 5f · rated 494thClass 6 · 5f22y · rated 543rdClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 663rdClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 61
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SO SMART (IRE)best 90needs 70–722025-04-04 · TFR 61 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C42025-04-20 · TFR 45 · 5f11y · Firm · C42025-05-10 · TFR 74 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-05-26 · TFR 62 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-13 · TFR 71 · 5f11y · Good · C42025-06-23 · TFR 60 · 5f15y · Good · C52025-07-08 · TFR 53 · 5f · Good · C42025-07-29 · TFR 77 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-07 · TFR 45 · 5f15y · Good · C42025-08-22 · TFR 72 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52025-09-12 · TFR 72 · 5f11y · Soft · C52025-09-28 · TFR 44 · 5f · Heavy · C52025-10-20 · TFR 49 · 5f11y · Soft · C52025-11-08 · TFR 58 · 5f22y · Slow · C62025-11-24 · TFR 6 · 5f22y · Std/Slow · C62026-04-05 · TFR 67 · 5f11y · Good · C62026-04-27 · TFR 52 · 5f11y · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-09 · TFR 62 · 5f · Gd/Frm · C52026-05-21 · TFR 61 · 5f15y · Good · C42026-05-29 · TFR 66 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-06 · TFR 54 · 5f15y · Soft · C62026-06-17 · TFR 49 · 5f · Soft · C62026-07-16 · TFR 70 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C54 Apr 2516 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 453 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.959/6513.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦7/6510.8%0.674/478.5%0.66
Over 5-6f trips ✦18/2198.2%0.856/787.7%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)2/1020.0%2.11/812.5%1.23
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
The rider
Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 3/14 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.06 (n13) · with this yard: A/E 4.39 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 58 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.25 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 42.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
-0.03s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 3
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 7
7.34 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Chepstow5f16yGd/Frm51st58—Fast early44.1 -0.1498.8—
17 Jun 26Ffos Las5fSoft63rd59—Fast early41.0 -0.0994.9+0.06
6 Jun 26Chepstow5f16ySoft64th6055Fast early41.2 -0.2795.4+0.00
29 May 26Chepstow5f16yGd/Frm53rd6071True42.6 -0.92103.1+0.00
21 May 26Chepstow5f16yGood43rd6178.5True42.6 -0.0498.9-0.09
9 May 26Lingfield4f217yGd/Frm55th6262Fast early43.7 -0.0595.4—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledfast2fledfast3fledpar4fledslow5fledslow
Timed runs 2026-05-09 to 2026-07-16. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
LEVEL UP (IRE) · 6 meetings≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses
17 Jun 26 · 5f · Soft — finished 3rd vs 2nd, 4L behind · OR 59 v 63
SON OF ASTAR · 2 meetings≈ 0.9L ahead on today's terms · confirms
6 Jun 26 · 5f22y · Soft — finished 4th vs 2nd, 3L behind · OR 60 v 54 · race median 55
TRAFALGER · 1 meeting≈ 2.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Sep 25 · 5f · Soft — finished 3rd vs 5th, 1.05L ahead · OR 69 v 71 · race median 71
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 Jul 26 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 2L ahead · OR 58 v 65
RIVER EDGE · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 Jul 26 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 4th, 2.6L ahead · OR 58 v 47
Read through a common rival
vs SUNDIATA KEITA (IRE) (read through MOE'S LEGACY, EM FOUR, DIAMONDSINTHESAND, SYMBOL OF HOPE) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (70.0)Improving fast — last run rated 70, 12pts above his recent average of 57.7Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 6 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“quickly away, disputed lead, went on over 2f out, asserted final ½f”
#3 SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) MID
DRAW 7 · OR 65 · Harry Vigors / Grace Harris
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
69.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 2.7pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
69.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 40 tries · beats market expectation (1.24)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.39% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
2ndClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 681stClass 6 · 6f · rated 753rdClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 652ndClass 5 · 5f154y · rated 686thClass 5 · 5f154y · rated 20
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE)best 75needs 70–722025-06-16 · TFR 58 · 6f15y · Gd/Frm · C52025-06-25 · TFR 65 · 5f161y · Firm · C62025-07-02 · TFR 68 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-11 · TFR 65 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C62025-07-25 · TFR 46 · 5f15y · Good · C52025-08-06 · TFR 69 · 5f59y · Good · C62025-08-19 · TFR 71 · 5f15y · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-29 · TFR 38 · 5f11y · Soft · C52025-09-03 · TFR 75 · 5f11y · Heavy · C62025-09-14 · TFR 28 · 5f161y · Gd/Sft · C22025-09-30 · TFR 57 · 5f161y · Gd/Frm · C52025-10-20 · TFR 28 · 5f161y · Soft · C52026-04-13 · TFR 23 · 6f · Good · C52026-04-29 · TFR 20 · 5f161y · Firm · C52026-06-05 · TFR 68 · 5f161y · Good · C52026-06-15 · TFR 65 · 5f15y · Good · C52026-06-27 · TFR 75 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-16 · TFR 68 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C516 Jun 2516 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 453 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.959/6513.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦7/6510.8%0.674/478.5%0.66
Over 5-6f trips ✦18/2198.2%0.856/787.7%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
The rider
Harry Vigors · last 14 days: 0/12 · at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n7) · with this yard: A/E 4.6 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 58 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.16 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 42.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
97.4%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 7
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Chepstow5f16yGd/Frm52nd65—Fast early44.6 +0.41100.0—
27 Jun 26Lingfield6fGd/Frm61st61—True41.6 +0.42101.2+0.00
15 Jun 26Chepstow5f16yGood53rd6262True43.6 +0.3899.3—
5 Jun 26Bath5f160yGood52nd6270.5Fast early40.9 -0.1896.5+0.13
29 Apr 26Bath5f160yFirm56th6471.5True40.9 +0.0495.5+0.12
13 Apr 26Leicester6fGood57th6572True42.2 -0.1391.9+0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.74slow2f+0.75fast3f+0.46fast4f+0.31slow5f+0.33slow
Timed runs 2026-04-13 to 2026-07-16. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
LEVEL UP (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.9L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Jun 26 · 5f22y · Good — finished 3rd vs 5th, 2.2L ahead · OR 62 v 63 · race median 62
SO SMART (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Jul 26 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 1st, 2L behind · OR 65 v 58
RIVER EDGE · 1 meeting≈ 0.3L ahead on today's terms · line-ball
16 Jul 26 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 4th, 0.6L ahead · OR 65 v 47
TRAFALGER · 1 meeting≈ 6.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
30 Sep 25 · 5f154y · Gd/Frm — finished 13th vs 3rd, 5.3L behind · OR 67 v 70 · race median 68
Read through a common rival
vs SON OF ASTAR (read through FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, SOME NIGHTMARE, SISTERS IN THE SKY, SYMBOL OF HOPE) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs SUNDIATA KEITA (IRE) (read through MOE'S LEGACY, CONNIE'S ROSE, SISTERS IN THE SKY, VAUNTED) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 61)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRated #3 in this field (69.3)Proven over the trip (40 tries, beats market expectation at 1.24)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 7 here)
LTO comment
“blindfold removed late, rear, headway over 1f out, no extra final ½f”
#4 TRAFALGER PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 65 · Benoit de la Sayette / Ben Case
MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
62 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 10pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
62 · ranked #4 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
65 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 98.76% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
drops 16 places on the course scale (WINDSOR 11th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 14lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 58 vs 72 last run (WINDSOR · 29 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 5 · 6f22y · rated 595thClass 5 · 5f44y · rated 493rdClass 5 · 5f154y · rated 785thClass 5 · 5f · rated 702ndClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for TRAFALGERbest 78needs 70–722025-07-10 · TFR 77 · 6f · Gd/Frm · C52025-08-11 · TFR 78 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm · C42025-09-12 · TFR 70 · 5f11y · Soft · C52025-09-30 · TFR 78 · 5f161y · Gd/Frm · C52025-10-13 · TFR 49 · 5f42y · Gd/Frm · C52026-06-29 · TFR 59 · 6f11y · Gd/Frm · C510 Jul 2529 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ben Case
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
The rider
Benoit de la Sayette · last 14 days: 1/11 · at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 58 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 7
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm58th6972True42.0 +0.0999.0—
13 Oct 25Yarmouth5f42yGd/Frm55th7069Fast early43.4 +0.3096.3+0.16
30 Sep 25Bath5f160yGd/Frm53rd7068.5True41.8 +0.3996.0+0.16
12 Sep 25Sandown Park5f10ySoft55th7171Fast early39.0 +0.1393.2+0.43
11 Aug 25Windsor5f21yGd/Frm42nd——Slow early41.6 -0.12103.5-0.13
10 Jul 25Doncaster6fGd/Frm52nd——True41.5 +0.14104.5-0.01
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledslow3fledpar4fledpar5f+0.39slow6f+1.13slow
Timed runs 2025-07-10 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
SO SMART (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.7L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
12 Sep 25 · 5f · Soft — finished 5th vs 3rd, 1.05L behind · OR 71 v 69 · race median 71 (today 58)
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
30 Sep 25 · 5f154y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 13th, 5.3L ahead · OR 70 v 67 · race median 68 (today 58)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+1.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SON OF ASTAR (read through FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, FOUR ADAAY, SOUTH SHORE, SMOOTH SILESIE) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs LEVEL UP (IRE) (read through SECRET HANDSHEIKH, FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, FAUSTUS, LIPSINK) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, weakened over 1f out”
#5 SON OF ASTAR HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 56 · George Wood / Tony Carroll
MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
57 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 15pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
57 · ranked #5 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
56 · last won off 58
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 22 tries · beats market expectation (1.18)
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.91% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Steps into 7lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 58 vs 51 last run (BATH · 13 Jun 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
10thClass 6 · 5f · rated 512ndClass 6 · 5f22y · rated 6312thClass 6 · 6f22y · rated 16thClass 6 · 5f · rated 5611thClass 6 · 6f · rated 47
Career sheet · last 18 months · 18 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SON OF ASTARneeds 70–72best 692025-05-19 · TFR 50 · 5f22y · Slow · C52025-06-13 · TFR 14 · 6f18y · Gd/Frm · C52025-07-09 · TFR 60 · 5f · Good · C62025-07-29 · TFR 58 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C62025-08-29 · TFR 56 · 5f · Soft · C62025-09-14 · TFR 66 · 5f11y · Gd/Sft · C62025-10-15 · TFR 48 · 5f9y · Gd/Sft · C62025-10-17 · TFR 68 · 5f · Gd/Sft · C52025-11-21 · TFR 59 · 4f213y · Std · C62025-12-18 · TFR 69 · 5f · Slow · C62025-12-30 · TFR 63 · 5f22y · Slow · C62026-01-21 · TFR 63 · 5f · Slow · C62026-01-27 · TFR 62 · 5f22y · Std · C62026-02-10 · TFR 47 · 6f · Slow · C62026-02-21 · TFR 56 · 5f · Std · C62026-05-21 · TFR 1 · 6f15y · Good · C62026-06-06 · TFR 63 · 5f15y · Soft · C62026-06-13 · TFR 51 · 5f11y · Good · C619 May 2513 Jun 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2398 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow0/170.0%0.07/2429.2%1.63
Below their last winning mark11/1656.7%0.6720/10119.8%1.57
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24119.9%1.42
Over 5-6f trips ✦95/63714.9%1.2247/28316.6%1.19
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.0 demand
The rider
George Wood · last 14 days: 2/30 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.2 (n6) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 58 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.16 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
99.9%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 7
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Bath5f10yGood610th5751True40.6 +0.0197.2+0.18
6 Jun 26Chepstow5f16ySoft62nd5455Fast early41.4 +0.0097.7+0.18
21 May 26Chepstow6f16yGood612th5655.5True43.3 +0.0792.8+0.20
21 Feb 26Chelmsford City5fStd66th5858.5True41.4 +0.19100.8+0.67
27 Jan 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd65th6056.5True40.2 +0.34105.0+0.13
21 Jan 26Lingfield5fSlow63rd6057.5True41.7 +0.33106.0+0.52
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.68par2f+0.62fast3f+0.40par4f+0.39slow5f+0.98very slow
Timed runs 2026-01-21 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
SO SMART (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses
6 Jun 26 · 5f22y · Soft — finished 2nd vs 4th, 3L ahead · OR 54 v 60 · race median 55 (today 58)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SUNDIATA KEITA (IRE) (read through SISTERS IN THE SKY, SYMBOL OF HOPE, HIDDEN VERSE, SULTAN OF OJ) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs LEVEL UP (IRE) (read through SYMBOL OF HOPE, FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, SMOOTH SILESIE, CABEZA DE LLAVE) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs TRAFALGER (read through FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, FOUR ADAAY, SOUTH SHORE, SMOOTH SILESIE) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) (read through FLETCHER'S FLIGHT, SOME NIGHTMARE, SISTERS IN THE SKY, SYMBOL OF HOPE) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
2lb below his last winning mark (56 today vs 58)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayStable in form this week — 2 wins from 15 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, effort 2f out, no extra final 1f”
#6 RIVER EDGE PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 46 · Tyler Heard / Christopher Mason
MARKET 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−
48.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 24pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
48.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 48
Official mark (OR)
46 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 96.72% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
4thClass 5 · 5f22y · rated 483rdClass 6 · 5f22y · rated 472ndClass 4 · 5f · rated 435thClass 5 · 5f · rated —4thClass 5 · 5f66y · rated 36
Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for RIVER EDGEneeds 70–72best 482026-07-03 · TFR 47 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C62026-07-16 · TFR 48 · 5f15y · Gd/Frm · C53 Jul 2616 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christopher Mason · 169 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: on turf
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days7/2725.9%1.842/450.0%2.98
At this time of year (Q3)6/5710.5%0.833/1030.0%1.95
On turf ✦14/10014.0%1.1310/3826.3%1.9
In fields of <=76/3815.8%1.045/1435.7%1.9
Over 5-6f trips ✦16/11613.8%1.1610/4223.8%1.78
At Chepstow2/1020.0%1.12/728.6%1.55
In Class 6-7 company7/4615.2%1.294/1428.6%1.38
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 48 is below the ~70.0 the race demands
The rider
Tyler Heard · last 14 days: 0/7 · at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n5) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 58 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 43.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
96.7%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 7
7.62 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jul 26Chepstow5f16yGd/Frm54th47—Fast early44.2 -0.0198.9—
3 Jul 26Chepstow5f16yGd/Frm63rd——True42.7 +0.1599.4+0.11
27 Jun 24Leicester5fGd/Frm42nd——True—99.1—
15 Jun 24Bath5f10yGood55th——Fast early—90.2—
3 Jun 24Brighton5f60yGd/Frm54th——True44.1 -0.0496.1+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.03fast2f+0.21fast3f+0.29par4f+0.20slow5f+0.45very slow
Timed runs 2024-06-03 to 2026-07-16. · 2 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 3 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.3L behind on today's terms · line-ball
16 Jul 26 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 2nd, 0.6L behind · OR 47 v 65
SO SMART (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Jul 26 · 5f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 1st, 2.6L behind · OR 47 v 58
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · thin Timeform history (2 figures)
Drops in class todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days ago
LTO comment
“disputed lead, edged right, no extra final 1f”
#7 SUNDIATA KEITA (IRE) MID
DRAW 1 · OR 50 · William Cox / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET drifting 17 → 42 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
32.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 40pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
32.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 67
Official mark (OR)
50 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 9 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s) · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.0% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 58 vs 54 last run (CHEPSTOW · 8 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
5thClass 6 · 7f22y · rated 329thClass 6 · 5f154y · rated 248thClass 6 · 6f · rated 324thClass 6 · 5f154y · rated 615thClass 5 · 5f154y · rated 33
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for SUNDIATA KEITA (IRE)needs 70–72best 672025-05-31 · TFR 43 · 4f213y · Std · C62025-06-25 · TFR 67 · 5f161y · Firm · C62025-08-13 · TFR 62 · 5f · Good · C62025-08-16 · TFR 33 · 5f161y · Firm · C52025-09-03 · TFR 61 · 5f161y · Soft · C62025-09-18 · TFR 32 · 6f · Std · C62025-10-09 · TFR 24 · 5f161y · Good · C62026-07-08 · TFR 32 · 7f15y · Gd/Frm · C6 · off-trip31 May 258 Jul 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Rhys Flint · 188 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chepstow4/1040.0%2.220/110.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips6/2722.2%1.750/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/667.6%0.980/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/719.9%1.090/100.0%0.0
In fields of <=76/2623.1%2.170/120.0%0.0
On turf11/1288.6%1.081/412.4%0.33
In Class 6-7 company9/6414.1%1.311/244.2%0.57
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 67 is below the ~70.0 the race demands
The rider
William Cox · last 14 days: 0/9 · at Chepstow: A/E 0.93 (n21) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n21)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 58 graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.08s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 7
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Jul 26Chepstow7f16yGd/Frm65th5354Slow early41.9 -0.0399.3—
9 Oct 25Bath5f160yGood69th5653True40.1 +0.4893.6+0.04
18 Sep 25Kempton Park6fStd68th5857.5True39.2 -0.5999.3+0.27
3 Sep 25Bath5f160ySoft64th5958.5True38.3 +0.4997.7+0.00
16 Aug 25Bath5f160yFirm55th6071True40.5 +0.0096.9+0.00
13 Aug 25Ffos Las5fGood63rd6060True42.7 +0.03101.2—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.34very slow2f+0.27very slow3f+0.26slow4f+0.27par5f+0.17fast6f+0.30fast7f+1.49slow
Timed runs 2025-08-13 to 2026-07-08. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs SON OF ASTAR (read through SISTERS IN THE SKY, SYMBOL OF HOPE, HIDDEN VERSE, SULTAN OF OJ) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs SO SMART (IRE) (read through MOE'S LEGACY, EM FOUR, DIAMONDSINTHESAND, SYMBOL OF HOPE) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs LEVEL UP (IRE) (read through CONNIE'S ROSE, DIAMONDSINTHESAND, SYMBOL OF HOPE, SILKY ROBIN) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) (read through MOE'S LEGACY, CONNIE'S ROSE, SISTERS IN THE SKY, VAUNTED) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“prominent, challenged 2f out, weakened over 1f out”