BUILT 16:48 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here spend about 50% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, KNIGHTMARE (IRE) leads on 60, 4pts clear of PRINCE ALI — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is PRINCE ALI — the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes KNIGHTMARE (IRE) the 29% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
KNIGHTMARE (IRE)
OR · Ryan Kavanagh / David Evans
MARKET 3.4 · the market rates it a 29% chance
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−The top rating in this field (60.0)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
PRINCE ALI
OR · Zoe Lewis / Thomas Faulkner
MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance
56.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (56.0)Proven over the trip (20 tries, beats market expectation at 1.25)Jockey goes well at this track (3.7x market expectation)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
FIGHTING QUEEN
OR · William Carson / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
51.5FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (51.5)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.86)Historically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1KNIGHTMARE (IRE)net +10figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls
2PRINCE ALInet +8figure top-2, form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag
3WESTON COURT (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, proven on the going − burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. PRINCE ALI is the one to beat it — an edge KNIGHTMARE (IRE) lacks: flagged on our watch list.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look graded 32% · n=158
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
FITZMAURICE (IRE) FIGURE #8
Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
LADY MARGRET (IRE) FIGURE #9
Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (4 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 29% · prominent racers 28% (210 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Winners’ energy signature: 50.1% spent early (band 49.02–50.74%, 10 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.29s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331Today 4 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–10
12345678910
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–10).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: KNIGHTMARE (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · PRINCE ALI is 1/3 on softer ground · FIGHTING QUEEN is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
A ROSE ADAAYHELD-UP50.7%97.5held up without the late gear (9th of 10 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
FIGHTING QUEENPROMINENT50.9%97.7concedes ~1.6L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
FITZMAURICE (IRE)MID49.7%98.1held up without the late gear (6th of 10 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
JUDGE FRANK (IRE)PROMINENT51.0%97.6the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
KNIGHTMARE (IRE)FRONT50.2%103.5the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
LADY MARGRET (IRE)MID49.4%100.7the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
PRINCE ALIMID49.2%101.1the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
STAR OF ATLANTIS (IRE)HELD-UP50.1%99.8one-paced late — 4th of 10 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
STRONG MAN TOMMID51.7%98.8one-paced late — 5th of 10 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
WESTON COURT (IRE)PROMINENT51.0%97.2a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
JUDGE FRANK (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
KNIGHTMARE (IRE)FRONTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
WESTON COURT (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
FIGHTING QUEENPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.21s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1KNIGHTMARE (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 4 · OR · 9-9 · −3lb claim = 9-6 carried · Ryan Kavanagh / David Evans
MARKET 3.4 · the market rates it a 29% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; the quickest of today's early types, at the tempo that wins here — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls.
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Evans · 896 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days35/33010.6%0.989/7911.4%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦29/23412.4%0.93/595.1%0.4
At this time of year (Q3)19/2069.2%0.922/287.1%0.49
Over 7-8f trips ✦26/26010.0%0.934/616.6%0.57
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)2/1414.3%1.411/119.1%0.66
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.3 demand
The rider
Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 3/14· at Chepstow: A/E 1.06 (n13)· with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n16)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 10
+0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 10
-0.01s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 4
Finish · closing speed1st of 10
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length9th of 10
6.96 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-05-26 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
STAR OF ATLANTIS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 3.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+3.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs WESTON COURT (IRE) (read through BAYNOONA, ANNEXATION, ROVINIA, EUTROPIA) ≈ +5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs JUDGE FRANK (IRE) (read through BOBBY DASSLER, BAYNOONA, ANNEXATION, PESSOA) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FITZMAURICE (IRE) (read through JOYCEAN WAY, THE COLA BRASIL, BLUEBELLS BOY, UP THE ANTI) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FIGHTING QUEEN (read through KING OF SPEED, PRIDE OF NEPAL, MASQOOL, RACING DEMON) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
The top rating in this field (60.0)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.7 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“soon led, quickened 3f out, pushed along 2f out, headed final 1f, kept on”
#2PRINCE ALIMIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR · 9-9 · −7lb claim = 9-2 carried · Zoe Lewis / Thomas Faulkner
MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 7+ / 0−
56.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 46
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 20 tries · beats market expectation (1.25)
Days since last run
48
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.14% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Thomas Faulkner · 251 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)1/512.0%0.293/837.5%2.17
Over 7-8f trips5/4511.1%1.168/3522.9%2.1
Coming back after 46 to 90 days2/2010.0%1.03/1520.0%1.87
In Class 6-7 company ✦9/8810.2%1.2112/6319.0%1.69
At Chepstow0/110.0%0.02/1315.4%1.5
In fields of 8-11 ✦8/918.8%1.0410/6714.9%1.47
On turf2/434.7%0.635/3016.7%1.3
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.3 demand
The rider
Zoe Lewis · last 14 days: 0/2· at Chepstow: A/E 3.7 (n6)· with this yard: A/E 1.52 (n55)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields6th of 10
-0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 10
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 10
101.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 10
7.39 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26Chepstow1m14ySoft61st4650Fast early41.0 +0.1792.0+0.59
5 May 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd66th5250.5True37.3 -0.03103.1+0.25
Timed runs 2026-01-02 to 2026-06-06. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs FITZMAURICE (IRE) (read through LESSAY, SENSE OF WORTH) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs LADY MARGRET (IRE) (read through HOMELAND, MAGIC RUNNER) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs A ROSE ADAAY (read through HOMELAND, RIVAL) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FIGHTING QUEEN (read through KING OF SPEED, NAUGHTY NIALL, MASQOOL, NIGHT BEAR) ≈ +4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (56.0)Proven over the trip (20 tries, beats market expectation at 1.25)Jockey goes well at this track (3.7x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“handy, ridden under 3f out, went on under 2f out, looked in control entering final 1f, closed down final ½f, always holding on”
#3FIGHTING QUEENPROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR · William Carson / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
51.5FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 8.5pts off the top, proven at the trip; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
51.5 · ranked #3 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
1 win from 10 tries · beats market expectation (1.86)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Rhys Flint · 188 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chepstow4/1040.0%2.220/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/667.6%0.980/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/719.9%1.090/100.0%0.0
On turf11/1288.6%1.081/412.4%0.33
In fields of 8-114/735.5%0.711/283.6%0.53
Over 7-8f trips2/523.8%0.541/273.7%0.55
In Class 6-7 company9/6414.1%1.311/244.2%0.57
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 64 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.3 demand
The rider
William Carson · last 14 days: 0/8· at Chepstow: A/E 1.03 (n32)· with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields5th of 10
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 10
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 10
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 10
6.88 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Bath1mGood611th5055True38.3 -0.7086.1+0.39
23 May 26Windsor1m2fGd/Frm614th5252—39.4 +0.0698.4+0.41
28 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow65th5353True37.5 -0.09100.7+0.07
11 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow63rd5349True38.6 +0.30106.0+0.00
16 Aug 25Bath1mFirm67th5557.5True39.3 +0.0195.9+0.28
14 Jun 25Bath1m2f37yGd/Frm67th5962True38.2 -0.1999.0+0.13
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-06-14 to 2026-06-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
JUDGE FRANK (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 11.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
23 May 26 · 1m2f · Gd/Frm — finished 14th vs 7th, 18.3L behind · OR 52 v 51 · race median 52
WESTON COURT (IRE) · 2 meetings · n/a
23 May 25 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 8th, 6.75L ahead · OR 61 v 51 · race median 58 · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
STAR OF ATLANTIS (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Aug 25 · 1m · Firm — finished 7th vs 5th, 9.3L behind · OR 55 v 54 · race median 58
Read through a common rival
vs KNIGHTMARE (IRE) (read through KING OF SPEED, PRIDE OF NEPAL, MASQOOL, RACING DEMON) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs PRINCE ALI (read through KING OF SPEED, NAUGHTY NIALL, MASQOOL, NIGHT BEAR) ≈ -4.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs A ROSE ADAAY (read through EYE OF THE WATER, LIBERTY BIRD, RACING DEMON) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (51.5)Proven over the trip (10 tries, beats market expectation at 1.86)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden under 3f out, weakened”
#4WESTON COURT (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR · 9-9 · −5lb claim = 9-4 carried · Harry Vigors / Ronald Harris
MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
50.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, proven on the ground; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
50.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 58
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 51
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.84)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ronald Harris · 119 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company7/5712.3%1.430/260.0%0.0
At Chepstow0/30.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips2/365.6%0.770/220.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days4/2317.4%1.20/90.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)5/3016.7%1.210/80.0%0.0
On turf10/6116.4%1.410/300.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 58 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.3 demand
The rider
Harry Vigors · last 14 days: 0/12· at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n7)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields4th of 10
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 10
-0.08s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 3
Finish · closing speed10th of 10
97.2%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 10
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-29 to 2026-07-16. · 3 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
FIGHTING QUEEN · 2 meetings · n/a
23 May 25 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 5th, 6.75L behind · OR 51 v 61 · race median 58 · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
JUDGE FRANK (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 12.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
17 Apr 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 9th vs 7th, 12.5L behind · OR 45 v 53 · race median 56
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-12.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs KNIGHTMARE (IRE) (read through BAYNOONA, ANNEXATION, ROVINIA, EUTROPIA) ≈ -5.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs STAR OF ATLANTIS (IRE) (read through OASIS SUNRISE, BLUE HERO, SCARFO, FACT OR FABLE) ≈ -5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs A ROSE ADAAY (read through RIVAL, SCARFO, AUTUMN ANGEL, EYE OF THE WATER) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FITZMAURICE (IRE) (read through JOYCEAN WAY, HAVANA MOJITO, RAVENGLASS, BLUE POINT EXPRESS) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.84)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed under 3f out, one paced”
#5A ROSE ADAAYHELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR · 9-9 · −5lb claim = 9-4 carried · Ben Ffrench Davis / Grace Harris
MARKET 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
49.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 11pts off the top, a yard in form; held up without the late gear (9th of 10 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
49.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 50
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.52% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 7 places on the course scale (FFOS LAS 34th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 453 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦13/1827.1%1.038/5813.8%1.43
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.959/6513.8%1.19
Over 7-8f trips3/614.9%0.895/4710.6%1.17
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 50 is below the ~54.3 the race demands
The rider
Ben Ffrench Davis · last 14 days: 0/5· at Chepstow: A/E 2.84 (n11)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields7th of 10
-0.15 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 10
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 10
97.5%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 10
7.47 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Ffos Las7f80yGood63rd——True39.7 -0.25104.3+0.28
15 Jun 26Chepstow1m14yGood65th4951.5True42.8 -0.0597.1+0.12
6 Jun 26Chepstow1m14ySoft63rd5049.5True39.8 +0.2097.2-0.05
21 May 26Chepstow6f16yGood65th5255.5True43.7 +0.4699.0+0.18
30 Oct 25Bath5f160ySoft66th5550True39.4 -0.6394.5+0.36
Timed runs 2025-09-22 to 2026-06-30. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
JUDGE FRANK (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 9.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
6 Jun 26 · 1m22y · Soft — finished 3rd vs 8th, 9.75L ahead · OR 50 v 49 · race median 50
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+9.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs PRINCE ALI (read through HOMELAND, RIVAL) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FIGHTING QUEEN (read through EYE OF THE WATER, LIBERTY BIRD, RACING DEMON) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs WESTON COURT (IRE) (read through RIVAL, SCARFO, AUTUMN ANGEL, EYE OF THE WATER) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs STAR OF ATLANTIS (IRE) (read through EYE OF THE WATER, SCARFO, ALYARA, DIAMONDSINTHESAND) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Only 3 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (2.84x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 2f out, ridden and headway 1f out, one paced”
#6STAR OF ATLANTIS (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 10 · OR · Joe Leavy / Adrian Wintle
MARKET 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
45.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 15pts off the top, a yard in form; one-paced late — 4th of 10 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
45.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 63
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 47
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 24 tries · in line with the market (1.01)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.83% (one-paced late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (BATH 35th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Headgear
First-time hood
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Wintle · 586 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/14212.0%0.944/1526.7%1.63
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chepstow2/1910.5%0.851/156.7%0.44
In fields of 8-11 ✦21/2568.2%0.787/1007.0%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.3 demand
The rider
Joe Leavy · last 14 days: 2/23· at Chepstow: A/E 1.29 (n41)· with this yard: A/E 0.71 (n61)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 10
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 10
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 10
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 10
7.49 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Bath1mFirm66th——True38.7 -0.0997.3—
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd64th——Fast early39.4 -0.20101.4+0.24
Timed runs 2026-02-06 to 2026-07-01. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
vs WESTON COURT (IRE) (read through OASIS SUNRISE, BLUE HERO, SCARFO, FACT OR FABLE) ≈ +5.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FITZMAURICE (IRE) (read through BACK FROM DUBAI, REPUTATION) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs PRINCE ALI (read through FASTER BEE, BOSSY PARKER, SCEPTIC) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs A ROSE ADAAY (read through EYE OF THE WATER, SCARFO, ALYARA, DIAMONDSINTHESAND) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, soon behind, headway from 2f out, plugged on final 1f”
#7JUDGE FRANK (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 8 · OR · Charles Bishop / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
37.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 23pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
37.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
unrated · last won off 59
Record at today's distance
1 win from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.74)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Rhys Flint · 188 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chepstow4/1040.0%2.220/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/667.6%0.980/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/719.9%1.090/100.0%0.0
On turf11/1288.6%1.081/412.4%0.33
In fields of 8-114/735.5%0.711/283.6%0.53
Over 7-8f trips2/523.8%0.541/273.7%0.55
In Class 6-7 company9/6414.1%1.311/244.2%0.57
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.3 demand
The rider
Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 2/27· at Chepstow: A/E 0.66 (n32)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n10)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields1st of 10
+0.22 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 10
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 10
97.6%
One-paced late
Stride length7th of 10
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jun 26Chepstow1m14yGood68th4751True43.1 +0.5296.3+0.14
6 Jun 26Chepstow1m14ySoft68th4949.5True39.5 -0.1891.7+0.06
23 May 26Windsor1m2fGd/Frm67th5152—39.6 +0.22103.4+0.18
17 Apr 26 · 1m · Gd/Sft — finished 7th vs 9th, 12.5L ahead · OR 53 v 45 · race median 56
Read through a common rival
vs KNIGHTMARE (IRE) (read through BOBBY DASSLER, BAYNOONA, ANNEXATION, PESSOA) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs PRINCE ALI (read through RIVAL, WHISKEY SUNRISE, PESSOA, SCENARIO) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs LADY MARGRET (IRE) (read through OUTRACE, BONA VERBA) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs FITZMAURICE (IRE) (read through MINI MAC, JOYCEAN WAY, HAVANA MOJITO, MOUNT MOGAN) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“led, ridden under 3f out, weakened under 2f out”
#8FITZMAURICE (IRE)MID
DRAW 9 · OR · George Wood / Tony Carroll
MARKET 30 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
35FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 25pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; held up without the late gear (6th of 10 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2398 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow0/170.0%0.07/2429.2%1.63
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24119.9%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.3 demand
The rider
George Wood · last 14 days: 2/30· at Chepstow: A/E 1.2 (n6)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields9th of 10
-0.28 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 10
+0.18s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 10
98.1%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 10
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-16 to 2026-07-13. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs PRINCE ALI (read through LESSAY, SENSE OF WORTH) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs KNIGHTMARE (IRE) (read through JOYCEAN WAY, THE COLA BRASIL, BLUEBELLS BOY, UP THE ANTI) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs STAR OF ATLANTIS (IRE) (read through BACK FROM DUBAI, REPUTATION) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs WESTON COURT (IRE) (read through JOYCEAN WAY, HAVANA MOJITO, RAVENGLASS, BLUE POINT EXPRESS) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 15 runsRace-fit — ran 11 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“off pace, outpaced 2f out, plugged on”
#9LADY MARGRET (IRE)MID
DRAW 7 · OR · Jack Doughty / Tony Carroll
MARKET 40 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
31.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 29pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
31.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 48
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
186
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.72% (holds late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 186 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2398 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Chepstow0/170.0%0.07/2429.2%1.63
On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24119.9%1.42
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)2/375.4%0.82/1315.4%4.22
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 48 is below the ~54.3 the race demands
The rider
Jack Doughty · last 14 days: 0/17· at Chepstow: A/E 1.36 (n16)· with this yard: A/E 1.07 (n609)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's fieldgraded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields8th of 10
-0.18 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 10
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 10
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 10
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Jan 26Wolverhampton1m1f104yStd610th——True38.6 +0.65101.0+0.04
3 Jan 26Southwell7f14yStd68th5453True38.6 -0.16100.6+0.11
25 Oct 25Wolverhampton1m1f104ySlow612th6060True39.7 -0.9795.7+0.23
Timed runs 2025-08-29 to 2026-01-19 · last timed run 186 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs PRINCE ALI (read through HOMELAND, MAGIC RUNNER) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs JUDGE FRANK (IRE) (read through OUTRACE, BONA VERBA) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark)
Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 15 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.36x market expectation)Returns from 186 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“always behind”
#10STRONG MAN TOMMID
DRAW 1 · OR · 9-9 · −5lb claim = 9-4 carried · Mason Paetel / Barry John Murphy
MARKET 90 · the market rates it a 1% chance
20.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 40pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.
Timed runs 2026-05-21 to 2026-06-08. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · unrated (no official mark) · never met today's rivals · thin Timeform history (1 figure)