FORMLAB Race Report — Chepstow 19:01

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Chepstow · 19:01

Class 5 · 1m13y · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 67.5

GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 16:48 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Measured on their own past openings, DAPPER GEE GEE should reach the front first — roughly 1.8 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (57% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, EUTROPIA leads on 82, 4pts clear of DARVEL (IRE) — one of the two strongest finishers here. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is RATING (IRE) — concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls. The market agrees — it makes EUTROPIA the 35% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

EUTROPIA

OR 67 · Joe Leavy / Adrian Wintle

MARKET 2.88 · the market rates it a 35% chance

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−The top rating in this field (82.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

DARVEL (IRE)

OR 69 · Charles Bishop / Patrick Chamings

MARKET 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance

78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (78.0)Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 2.17)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7

KODI FIRE (IRE)

OR 73 · Harry Vigors / Charles Hills

MARKET 7.4 · the market rates it a 14% chance

77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (77.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 5.06)Race-fit — ran 8 days ago

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1EUTROPIAnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard hot, FormLab watch flag − 5lb+ above last winning mark

2RATING (IRE)net +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, yard hot

3DAPPER GEE GEEnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup − burns early and empties

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87

EUTROPIA carries rated well above the mark it last won from. RATING (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge EUTROPIA lacks: sharp from the stalls.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look graded 32% · n=158

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

DAPPER GEE GEE FIGURE #5

Tony Carroll's runners in Class 4-5 company win 13.7% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 29% · prominent racers 28% (210 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Winners’ energy signature: 50.1% spent early (band 49.02–50.74%, 10 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.29s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331 Only 2 confirmed early types — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 79% · n=68

30 similar races at CHEPSTOW, 7.1-9.1f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, May-Sep, 2025-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (57% from the first three favourites). 13% won last time out, 33% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

33% 6yo+

30% 4yo

27% 5yo

Last ran

67% 15-45d

27% within 14d

3% 91d+

Market

43% 4th+ in the market

27% favourite

17% 2nd favourite

LTO form

53% unplaced last time

33% placed last time

13% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–7

1234567

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 2.5 of 7, field average 4.5).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: EUTROPIA is 1/2 on softer ground · DARVEL (IRE) is 2/7 on softer ground · KODI FIRE (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

KODI FIRE (IRE) MID 50.4% 96.2 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

DARVEL (IRE) HELD-UP 50.7% 100.2 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

DAPPER GEE GEE FRONT 51.4% 97.0 the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls

EUTROPIA HELD-UP 48.6% 103.7 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) MID 50.8% 99.7 one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

RATING (IRE) PROMINENT 49.5% 101.4 concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

DAPPER GEE GEEFRONTtypically ~2.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

RATING (IRE)PROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

measured on their own past openings, DAPPER GEE GEE should reach the front first — roughly 1.8 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 EUTROPIA HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 5 · OR 67 · Joe Leavy / Adrian Wintle

MARKET 2.88 · the market rates it a 35% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 2−

82.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

82.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 82

Official mark (OR)

67 · last won off 60

Record at today's distance

1 win from 11 tries · below market expectation (0.87)

Days since last run

8

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 103.66% (strong late)

Course scale · class context

drops 21 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Field strength · class context

Steps into 4lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 67.5 vs 64 last run (EPSOM DOWNS · 16 Jul 26)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 1m110y · rated 822ndClass 5 · 1m · rated 805thClass 6 · 1m · rated 671stClass 6 · 1m2f44y · rated 681stClass 6 · 1m · rated 66

Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Adrian Wintle · 586 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)17/14212.0%0.944/1526.7%1.63

In fields of <=78/6013.3%0.768/3721.6%1.5

Above their last winning mark9/1237.3%0.626/3815.8%1.19

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Chepstow2/1910.5%0.851/156.7%0.44

In Class 4-5 company7/1096.4%0.882/326.2%0.71

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand

The rider

Joe Leavy · last 14 days: 2/23 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.29 (n41) · with this yard: A/E 0.71 (n61)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.60 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.32s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

103.7%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length4th of 6

7.37 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Jul 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Frm52nd6764—42.1 +1.81105.5+0.63—

14 Jun 26Salisbury1mGood52nd6366Fast early38.3 +0.0798.5+0.18

22 May 26Bath1mGd/Frm65th6359True40.4 +0.66103.0+0.36

29 Apr 26Bath1m2f37yFirm61st6052True39.7 +1.02110.0+0.27

17 Apr 26Bath1mGd/Sft61st5656Fast early39.0 -0.3597.2+0.29

17 Mar 26Wolverhampton1m142yStd63rd5659Slow early40.3 +0.39107.8+0.21

Timed runs 2026-03-17 to 2026-07-16. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

RATING (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 2nd vs 5th, 10.25L ahead · OR 63 v 64 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

DARVEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 28.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 2nd vs 13th, 29.75L ahead · OR 63 v 68 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 2nd vs 4th, 7.25L ahead · OR 63 v 66 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

NAMMOS · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

24 Oct 25 · 7f · Slow — finished 6th vs 3rd, 2L behind

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+8.8L adj, 5 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs KODI FIRE (IRE) (read through DAPPLED LIGHT, THE HARE RAIL, OPENING BAT) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs DAPPER GEE GEE (read through TOO MUCH TREVOR, OPENING BAT, KING OF SPEED) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

7lb above his last winning mark (67 today vs 60)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (82.0)Lost roughly 2.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, forced to switch around 2f out, challenged approaching final 1f, edged out close home”

#2 DARVEL (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 4 · OR 69 · Charles Bishop / Patrick Chamings

MARKET 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−

78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.

FormLab Figure

78.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 80

Official mark (OR)

69 · last won off 69

Record at today's distance

5 wins from 26 tries · beats market expectation (2.17)

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield and fades · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 100.17% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 21 places on the course scale (EPSOM DOWNS 6th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

Blinkers

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 5 · 1m110y · rated 782ndClass 5 · 1m · rated 7613thClass 5 · 1m · rated 1210thClass 5 · 1m · rated 565thClass 5 · 1m · rated 70

Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Patrick Chamings · 297 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company11/1298.5%1.380/250.0%0.0

In fields of <=75/5010.0%0.960/180.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days12/1319.2%1.131/392.6%0.35

Too few runners to read reliably

Back at their last winning mark (small sample)0/30.0%0.01/333.3%3.24

At Chepstow (small sample)1/333.3%4.040/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 80 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand

The rider

Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 2/27 · at Chepstow: A/E 0.66 (n32) · with this yard: A/E 1.45 (n31)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.32 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.58s

Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

100.2%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length3rd of 6

7.40 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Epsom Downs1m113yGd/Frm53rd6868.5—42.5 +0.56107.2+0.36—

21 Jun 26Brighton7f216yGd/Frm52nd6862.5True42.7 +0.6998.4+0.20

14 Jun 26Salisbury1mGood513th6866Fast early38.0 -0.2398.5+0.14

27 May 26Kempton Park1mSlow510th7067.5True39.2 +0.2898.0+1.26

29 Apr 26Bath1mFirm55th7267.5True39.3 +0.16101.6+0.67

5 Apr 26Bath1mGood59th7468True38.8 +0.4897.4+0.84

Timed runs 2026-04-05 to 2026-07-09. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 14.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 13th vs 4th, 22.5L behind · OR 68 v 66 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

EUTROPIA · 1 meeting≈ 28.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 13th vs 2nd, 29.75L behind · OR 68 v 63 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

RATING (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 20.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 13th vs 5th, 19.5L behind · OR 68 v 64 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

KODI FIRE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

21 Jun 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 4th, 4.5L ahead · OR 68 v 70 · race median 62 (today 67.5)

Read through a common rival

vs NAMMOS (read through MY AMBITION, THE DARK BARON, RACING DEMON, FASTER BEE) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs DAPPER GEE GEE (read through OPENING BAT, MAGICAL MERLIN, RACINGBREAKS RYDER, ALAZWAR) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (78.0)Proven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 2.17)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)

LTO comment

“waited with, headway over 2f out, led approaching final 1f, headed final 100 yds”

#3 KODI FIRE (IRE) MID

DRAW 7 · OR 73 · Harry Vigors / Charles Hills

MARKET 7.4 · the market rates it a 14% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, proven at the trip; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

77.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 79

Official mark (OR)

73 · last won off 68

Record at today's distance

4 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (5.06)

Days since last run

8

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.23% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 774thClass 5 · 1m · rated 668thClass 4 · 1m · rated 375thClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 6914thClass 4 · 1m · rated —

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Charles Hills · 741 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 4-5 company32/3509.1%0.714/8416.7%1.43

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of <=722/12218.0%1.035/4411.4%0.76

On turf ✦41/4319.5%0.98/1017.9%0.81

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)0/20.0%0.01/425.0%3.91

Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)8/7311.0%0.752/1414.3%0.9

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand

The rider

Harry Vigors · last 14 days: 0/12 · at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n7) · with this yard: A/E 0.76 (n10)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.17s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

96.2%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 6

7.45 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Jul 26Chepstow1m14yGd/Frm51st6870Slow early41.9 -0.30103.0—

21 Jun 26Brighton7f216yGd/Frm54th7062.5True42.2 +0.1997.4—

23 May 26Salisbury1mGood48th7376—37.5 -0.3090.9+0.26

7 May 26Windsor1m31yGd/Frm55th7472True39.5 -0.1498.3+0.11

20 Sep 25Newbury1mSoft414th7482Fast early38.8 +0.1983.7+0.26

2 Sep 25Wolverhampton1m1f105ySlow55th7473.5True38.6 -0.09104.1+0.05

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledslow2fledvery slow3fledslow4fledslow5fledpar6fledfast7fledfast1mledvery fast

Timed runs 2025-09-02 to 2026-07-16. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

RATING (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L behind on today's terms · reverses

16 Jul 26 · 1m22y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 3rd, 1.25L ahead · OR 68 v 63 · race median 70 (today 67.5)

DARVEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

21 Jun 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 2nd, 4.5L behind · OR 70 v 68 · race median 62 (today 67.5)

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-3.4L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs EUTROPIA (read through DAPPLED LIGHT, THE HARE RAIL, OPENING BAT) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) (read through GREAT BLASKET, THE HARE RAIL, HAPPY BANNER, ECHALAR) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs DAPPER GEE GEE (read through GREAT BLASKET, OPENING BAT, PLAY ME, CRISTO) ≈ +0.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

5lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 68)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (77.0)Improving fast — last run rated 77, 17pts above his recent average of 60.0Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 5.06)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 1 here)

LTO comment

“made all, kicked on 2f out, always holding on”

#4 SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 6 · OR 64 · Taylor Fisher / John & Rhys Flint

MARKET 8.4 · the market rates it a 12% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 8−

74.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 8pts off the top, proven on the ground; one-paced late — 4th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

74.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 88

Official mark (OR)

64 · last won off 64

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 10 tries

Days since last run

10

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.2s) · best on the clock in its race
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.7% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 7 places on the course scale (FFOS LAS 34th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Class Reversion Watch [P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP

This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.

Best ever · vs now

TFR 88 at its peak · running to 74 now

a 14pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing

The handicapper's mark

64 — the exact mark it last WON from

it has already won a race from this very mark — the handicapper has given it a real chance

Raw speed

3rd fastest of 6 here

on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone

Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 5 · 7f88y · rated 747thClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 514thClass 5 · 1m · rated 654thClass 5 · 7f22y · rated 729thClass 5 · 1m2f44y · rated 46

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John & Rhys Flint · 188 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 4-5 company2/702.9%0.60/250.0%0.0

At Chepstow4/1040.0%2.220/110.0%0.0

Coming back after 8 to 14 days1/214.8%0.510/60.0%0.0

Back at their last winning mark1/425.0%4.160/40.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)7/719.9%1.090/100.0%0.0

In fields of <=76/2623.1%2.170/120.0%0.0

On turf11/1288.6%1.081/412.4%0.33

Over 7-8f trips2/523.8%0.541/273.7%0.55

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand

The rider

Taylor Fisher · last 14 days: 2/19 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.62 (n19) · with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n22)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

+0.16 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.37s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

99.7%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 6

7.34 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Jul 26Ffos Las7f80yGood52nd6467Fast early41.5 +0.64106.0—

27 Jun 26Chepstow1m14yGd/Frm57th6570True42.0 +0.1196.7+0.68

14 Jun 26Salisbury1mGood54th6666Fast early38.7 +0.4298.5+0.51

21 May 26Chepstow7f16yGood54th6665True42.6 -0.1697.2+0.13

9 Oct 25Bath1m2f37yGood59th6773True38.4 -0.0194.8+0.26

14 Aug 25Windsor1m2fFirm47th6975.5True39.8 -0.04105.1+0.27

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+1.03very slow2f+0.92par3f+0.80fast4f+0.60fast5f+0.51fast6f+0.33par7f+0.05par

Timed runs 2025-08-14 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

RATING (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.1L behind on today's terms · reverses

27 Jun 26 · 1m22y · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 5th, 5.75L behind · OR 65 v 64 · race median 70 (today 67.5)

DARVEL (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 14.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 4th vs 13th, 22.5L ahead · OR 66 v 68 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

EUTROPIA · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 4th vs 2nd, 7.25L behind · OR 66 v 63 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

DAPPER GEE GEE · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

21 May 26 · 7f22y · Good — finished 4th vs 1st, 0L ahead · OR 66 v 66 · race median 65 (today 67.5)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+3.6L adj, 6 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs KODI FIRE (IRE) (read through GREAT BLASKET, THE HARE RAIL, HAPPY BANNER, ECHALAR) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayImproving fast — last run rated 74, 10pts above his recent average of 63.3Jockey goes well at this track (1.62x market expectation)Lost roughly 3.1 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“very slowly away, off pace, headway halfway, pushed along over 2f out, flashed tail, some late headway”

#5 DAPPER GEE GEE FRONT

DRAW 3 · OR 68 · George Wood / Tony Carroll

MARKET 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−

72.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

72.3 · ranked #5 here · career best 74

Official mark (OR)

68 · last won off 66

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 16 tries · beats market expectation (1.19)

Days since last run

42

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.2s)
Usually races front-runner (cooked late)

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 97.0% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 22 places on the course scale (CHESTER 5th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 5 · 7f132y · rated 692ndClass 4 · 7f22y · rated 741stClass 5 · 7f22y · rated 744thClass 5 · 7f22y · rated 6912thClass 5 · 1m · rated 47

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Carroll · 2398 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, without a recent yard winner, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Chepstow0/170.0%0.07/2429.2%1.63

On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.248/24119.9%1.42

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~79.0 the race demands

The rider

George Wood · last 14 days: 2/30 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.2 (n6) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n11)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.10 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

97.0%

One-paced late

Stride length6th of 6

7.20 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

12 Jun 26Chester7f127ySoft55th6868Slow early37.7 +0.0697.3+0.00

6 Jun 26Chepstow7f16ySoft42nd6874.5True41.7 +0.0394.7+0.15

21 May 26Chepstow7f16yGood51st6665True42.7 -0.1195.6+0.00

28 Apr 26Southwell7f14yStd54th6767True39.8 -0.62103.2+0.01

29 Mar 26Doncaster1mGd/Sft512th6762Fast early37.3 -0.2291.3+0.15

4 Jan 26Southwell7f14yStd61st6563Fast early39.5 +0.2899.9-0.03

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1fledfast2f+0.01par3fledslow4fledslow5fledpar6fledslow7f+0.04slow1m+0.62par

Timed runs 2026-01-04 to 2026-06-12. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

21 May 26 · 7f22y · Good — finished 1st vs 4th, 0L ahead · OR 66 v 66 · race median 65 (today 67.5)

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs NAMMOS (read through BOWNDER, BAD HABITS, FISTRAL BEACH, ROGUE SOLDIER) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs DARVEL (IRE) (read through OPENING BAT, MAGICAL MERLIN, RACINGBREAKS RYDER, ALAZWAR) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs EUTROPIA (read through TOO MUCH TREVOR, OPENING BAT, KING OF SPEED) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

vs RATING (IRE) (read through OPENING BAT, GREAT BLASKET, BOWNDER, RAINWATER) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayStable in form this week — 2 wins from 15 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“led, kicked on 2f out, headed 1f out, no extra”

#6 RATING (IRE) PROMINENT

DRAW 2 · OR 63 · Ashley Lewis / Grace Harris

MARKET 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

68.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 14pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; concedes ~1.8L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

68.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 78

Official mark (OR)

63 · last won off 62

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 21 tries · in line with the market (1.01)

Days since last run

8

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 1.1s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 101.39% (holds late)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 685thClass 5 · 1m22y · rated 665thClass 5 · 1m · rated 561stClass 6 · 1m · rated 703rdClass 6 · 1m · rated 70

Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Grace Harris · 453 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 7-8f trips3/614.9%0.895/4710.6%1.17

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of <=7 ✦7/6510.8%0.674/478.5%0.66

In Class 4-5 company ✦7/1016.9%0.834/646.2%0.73

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 78 is below the ~79.0 the race demands

The rider

Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 7/25 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.12 (n19) · with this yard: A/E 1.52 (n28)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 67.5 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.11 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.02s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

101.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length1st of 6

7.57 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

16 Jul 26Chepstow1m14yGd/Frm53rd6370Slow early42.2 +0.07103.3—

27 Jun 26Chepstow1m14yGd/Frm55th6470True41.9 +0.00100.5+0.01

14 Jun 26Salisbury1mGood55th6466Fast early38.3 +0.0098.5+0.22

26 May 26Bath1mGd/Frm61st62—True39.6 +0.18101.0+0.00

22 May 26Bath1mGd/Frm63rd6259True39.3 -0.42101.1+0.00

27 Apr 26Bath1m2f37yGd/Frm62nd6262True37.7 -0.52103.9-0.11

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.45very slow2f+0.42very slow3f+0.27slow4f+0.17par5f+0.17par6f+0.22fast7f+0.15fast1m+0.19very fast

Timed runs 2026-04-27 to 2026-07-16. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 1.1L ahead on today's terms · confirms

27 Jun 26 · 1m22y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 7th, 5.75L ahead · OR 64 v 65 · race median 70 (today 67.5)

EUTROPIA · 2 meetings≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 5th vs 2nd, 10.25L behind · OR 64 v 63 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

NAMMOS · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball

26 May 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.75L ahead · OR 62 v 56

DARVEL (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 20.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

14 Jun 26 · 1m · Good — finished 5th vs 13th, 19.5L ahead · OR 64 v 68 · race median 66 (today 67.5)

KODI FIRE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.2L ahead on today's terms · confirms

16 Jul 26 · 1m22y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 1st, 1.25L behind · OR 63 v 68 · race median 70 (today 67.5)

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (+2.7L adj, 7 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs DAPPER GEE GEE (read through OPENING BAT, GREAT BLASKET, BOWNDER, RAINWATER) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“in touch, ridden over 2f out, short of room over 1f out, kept on final ½f”