Class 6 · 7f15y · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 59
GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED
BUILT 16:47 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
ON KEY is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) leads on 82, 15pts clear of TOO MUCH TREVOR — dropping in class. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is AUBURN AVENUE (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) the 50% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
PREFER THE SISTER (IRE)
OR 65 · Mason Paetel / James Owen
MARKET 1.99 · the market rates it a 50% chance
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−5lb below his last winning mark (65 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (82.0)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
TOO MUCH TREVOR
OR 58 · Ashley Lewis / Grace Harris
MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)Race-fit — ran 8 days agoA course winner (2 from 12 here)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
ON KEY
OR 59 · Kieran O'Neill / Scott Dixon
MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (65.0)Race-fit — ran 10 days agoRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1PREFER THE SISTER (IRE)net +8figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, energy in the winning band, yard hot, FormLab watch flag
2BRAVE BYREFLECTION (IRE)net +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), energy in the winning band, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, meets much weaker company by the marks
3ON KEYnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here − 5lb+ above last winning mark
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. BRAVE BYREFLECTION (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) lacks: proven on the ground.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
What this course & distance favours
Won by front-runners 30% · prominent racers 28% (122 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Winners’ energy signature: 50.41% spent early (band 49.86–50.96%, 13 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.13s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 79% · n=68
40 similar races at CHEPSTOW, 6.1-8.1f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2025-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (95% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites). 18% won last time out, 32% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
42% 6yo+
28% 5yo
18% 4yo
Last ran
60% 15-45d
35% within 14d
2% 91d+
Market
42% favourite
30% 4th+ in the market
18% 3rd favourite
LTO form
50% unplaced last time
32% placed last time
18% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground · TOO MUCH TREVOR is 1/10 on softer ground · ON KEY is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
PREFER THE SISTER (IRE)MID50.3%99.3one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
AUBURN AVENUE (IRE)HELD-UP49.4%104.1the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
BRAVE BYREFLECTION (IRE)MID50.4%98.7one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ON KEYFRONT50.3%96.1the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f
FRANCISCOMID49.3%102.5the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
TOO MUCH TREVORHELD-UP50.3%98.8one-paced late — 5th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
SIOUX WARRIOR (IRE)MID49.5%101.1the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ON KEYFRONTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.09s off the field’s best
ON KEY is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1PREFER THE SISTER (IRE)MIDDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 1 · OR 65 · Mason Paetel / James Owen
MARKET 1.99 · the market rates it a 50% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 15pts clear of the next, dropping in class; one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 25 tries · below market expectation (0.69)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1546 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)46/36612.6%0.9211/5420.4%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark12/5322.6%1.35/4910.2%0.66
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)1/520.0%2.011/714.3%0.73
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Mason Paetel · last 14 days: 3/17· at Chepstow: A/E 0.92 (n8)· with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n129)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields6th of 7
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 7
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 7
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Brighton6f210yGood61st5354True41.8 -0.2596.2+0.00
22 Jun 26Brighton6f210yGd/Frm63rd5353True43.4 +0.0099.1-0.07
11 Jun 26Yarmouth6fSoft62nd5348.5True38.8 +0.0999.5+0.29
Timed runs 2026-06-11 to 2026-07-17. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs FRANCISCO (read through ENGLISH LADY, KONDRATIEV WAVE, MY AMBITION, JOYCEAN WAY) ≈ +5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs BRAVE BYREFLECTION (IRE) (read through DION BAKER, INITIAL BLUE, AMICA) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs SIOUX WARRIOR (IRE) (read through ZU RUN, SEDGEMOOR, RIDGEWAY REDWING, JUST TYPICAL) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs TOO MUCH TREVOR (read through BEAR TO DREAM, ROMANOVICH, HAVANA TOBOUGGALOO, JUST TYPICAL) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (65 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (82.0)Improving fast — last run rated 82, 9pts above his recent average of 73.0Stable in form this week — 5 wins from 12 runsRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader, loomed up under 2f out, led soon after, pushed out”
#2TOO MUCH TREVORHELD-UP
DRAW 6 · OR 58 · Ashley Lewis / Grace Harris
MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 15pts off the top, prominent in the betting; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 54
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 27 tries · below market expectation (0.65)
Days since last run
8
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.81% (one-paced late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 6lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 53.5 last run (CHEPSTOW · 16 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 453 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.959/6513.8%1.19
Over 7-8f trips3/614.9%0.895/4710.6%1.17
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦7/6510.8%0.674/478.5%0.66
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 7/25· at Chepstow: A/E 1.12 (n19)· with this yard: A/E 1.52 (n28)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields5th of 7
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 7
+0.34s
Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 7
98.8%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 7
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-05-21 to 2026-07-16. · 3 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
ON KEY · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · confirms
6 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Soft — finished 1st vs 3rd, 1.5L ahead · OR 50 v 53 · race median 57 (today 59)
8 Jul 26 · 7f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 1st, 1.55L behind · OR 54 v 54 · race median 54 (today 59)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.0L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FRANCISCO (read through JUDGE FRANK, OASIS SUNRISE, MY AMBITION, GLADIADORA) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs BRAVE BYREFLECTION (IRE) (read through DAPPER GEE GEE, CONNIE'S ROSE) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) (read through BEAR TO DREAM, ROMANOVICH, HAVANA TOBOUGGALOO, JUST TYPICAL) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs AUBURN AVENUE (IRE) (read through SIXFIVESEVEN, EUTROPIA, GREEN ICON) ≈ -0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (58 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 8 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 12 here)
LTO comment
“in touch, under pressure under 3f out, led over 2f out, in command over 1f out, closed down late on, driven out”
#3ON KEYFRONT
DRAW 5 · OR 59 · Kieran O'Neill / Scott Dixon
MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 17pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 54
Record at today's distance
1 win from 21 tries · below market expectation (0.39)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Scott Dixon · 1056 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=77/888.0%0.668/5315.1%1.37
Above their last winning mark ✦21/17811.8%1.1213/9713.4%1.35
Over 7-8f trips ✦34/4407.7%1.039/1118.1%1.24
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦19/2178.8%1.219/999.1%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company ✦35/4797.3%0.987/1524.6%0.72
On turf24/20411.8%1.175/865.8%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)1/250.0%4.630/80.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/16· at Chepstow: A/E 0.63 (n25)· with this yard: A/E 1.32 (n343)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 7
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 7
96.1%
One-paced late
Stride length6th of 7
7.01 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Jun 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd62nd5357True40.6 +0.0197.4+0.02
6 Jun 26Chepstow6f16ySoft63rd5357True39.9 -0.0298.6+0.06
29 May 26Brighton5f215yGd/Frm62nd5349True43.1 -0.0696.1—
16 May 26Doncaster7fGd/Sft65th5449Fast early40.4 +0.0093.5+0.13
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-14. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
16 Feb 26 · 6f22y · Std — finished 7th vs 6th, 2.75L behind · OR 60 v 58 · race median 58 (today 59)
TOO MUCH TREVOR · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L behind on today's terms · reverses
6 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Soft — finished 3rd vs 1st, 1.5L behind · OR 53 v 50 · race median 57 (today 59)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.4L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FRANCISCO (read through ENGLISH LADY, MACARONE, ORBITAL CHIME, ENPASSANT) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) (read through SEDGEMOOR, ZU RUN, ALAFDHAL, BULLINGTON BRY) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs BRAVE BYREFLECTION (IRE) (read through SILCA BAY, SEARCHINGTHEBLUES, MIDNIGHT'S DREAM, INVITORIO) ≈ +0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (59 today vs 54)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (65.0)Race-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
#4AUBURN AVENUE (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 62 · Charles Bishop / John & Rhys Flint
MARKET 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
62.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 20pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
62.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
62 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 10 tries
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.13% (strong late)
Course scale · class context
steps up 5 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Meets a field 7lb weaker than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 66 last run (WOLVERHAMPTON · 7 Jul 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Rhys Flint · 188 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chepstow4/1040.0%2.220/110.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/667.6%0.980/270.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)7/719.9%1.090/100.0%0.0
In fields of <=76/2623.1%2.170/120.0%0.0
On turf11/1288.6%1.081/412.4%0.33
Over 7-8f trips2/523.8%0.541/273.7%0.55
In Class 6-7 company9/6414.1%1.311/244.2%0.57
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 2/27· at Chepstow: A/E 0.66 (n32)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n10)
Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields1st of 7
+0.36 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 37.8 raw · only 2 runs
Break · 0-20mph5th of 7
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 7
104.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 7
6.83 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-06-04 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs TOO MUCH TREVOR (read through SIXFIVESEVEN, EUTROPIA, GREEN ICON) ≈ +0.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Data gaps · sectional read off only 2 timed runs
Drops in class todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, no impression”
#5SIOUX WARRIOR (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 56 · Joe Leavy / Adrian Wintle
MARKET 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
62.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 20pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
62.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
56 · last won off 54
Record at today's distance
1 win from 17 tries · below market expectation (0.56)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.0s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.06% (holds late)
Field strength · class context
Steps into 5lb stronger company than last time — today's median OR 59 vs 54 last run (CHEPSTOW · 8 Jul 26)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Adrian Wintle · 586 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)17/14212.0%0.944/1526.7%1.63
In fields of <=78/6013.3%0.768/3721.6%1.5
Above their last winning mark9/1237.3%0.626/3815.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Chepstow2/1910.5%0.851/156.7%0.44
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Joe Leavy · last 14 days: 2/23· at Chepstow: A/E 1.29 (n41)· with this yard: A/E 0.71 (n61)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields4th of 7
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 7
101.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 7
7.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26Chepstow6f16yGd/Frm63rd5451True43.1 +0.0097.8+0.04
22 May 26Bath5f160yGd/Frm63rd5449True41.2 +0.3797.6+0.00
23 Mar 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd62nd5452True39.0 +0.05105.4+0.00
4 Mar 26Kempton Park6fSlow65th5552.5Fast early39.9 -0.06100.2+0.30
16 Feb 26Wolverhampton6f20yStd66th5858.5True40.8 -0.06100.9+0.37
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26very slow2f+0.29very slow3f+0.27slow4f+0.29par5f+0.26fast6f+0.17very fast7fledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-02-16 to 2026-07-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
ON KEY · 1 meeting≈ 3.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
16 Feb 26 · 6f22y · Std — finished 6th vs 7th, 2.75L ahead · OR 58 v 60 · race median 58 (today 59)
TOO MUCH TREVOR · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
8 Jul 26 · 7f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 4th, 1.55L ahead · OR 54 v 54 · race median 54 (today 59)
FRANCISCO · 1 meeting≈ 3.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Oct 25 · 6f22y · Slow — finished 3rd vs 4th, 0.1L ahead · OR 63 v 58 · race median 61 (today 59)
Read through a common rival
vs PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) (read through ZU RUN, SEDGEMOOR, RIDGEWAY REDWING, JUST TYPICAL) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, headway over 1f out, kept on”
#6BRAVE BYREFLECTION (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 60 · William Cox / James Evans
MARKET 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
51.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 30.3pts off the top, proven on the ground; one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
51.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance
1 win from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.7)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Evans · 203 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf5/637.9%1.071/119.1%1.4
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark4/1723.5%3.310/100.0%0.0
Over 7-8f trips9/5516.4%1.762/287.1%0.66
In Class 6-7 company12/6917.4%1.612/267.7%0.67
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)5/5010.0%1.391/250.0%5.85
At Chepstow (small sample)0/10.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
William Cox · last 14 days: 0/9· at Chepstow: A/E 0.93 (n21)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n23)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields7th of 7
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 7
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 7
98.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 7
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Kempton Park7fSlow512th6368—38.9 -0.0694.7+0.11—
6 Jun 26Chepstow7f16ySoft46th6574.5True41.8 +0.0693.6+0.22
4 Dec 25Chelmsford City1m2fSlow59th7370.5True38.0 -0.26100.8+0.61
19 Nov 25Kempton Park1mStd55th7472Fast early39.7 -0.0297.8-0.05
Timed runs 2025-11-19 to 2026-06-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
Read through a common rival
vs TOO MUCH TREVOR (read through DAPPER GEE GEE, CONNIE'S ROSE) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) (read through DION BAKER, INITIAL BLUE, AMICA) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs ON KEY (read through SILCA BAY, SEARCHINGTHEBLUES, MIDNIGHT'S DREAM, INVITORIO) ≈ -0.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
12lb below his last winning mark (60 today vs 72)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden when hung left under 2f out, no impression”
#7FRANCISCOMIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 58 · Alfie Redman / Patrick Chamings
MARKET 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
49.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 32.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
49.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 69
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 17 tries · in line with the market (1.0)
Days since last run
50
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.51% (holds late)
Headgear
Visor and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Patrick Chamings · 297 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 46 to 90 days3/2412.5%2.330/80.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark8/5813.8%1.530/140.0%0.0
In fields of <=75/5010.0%0.960/180.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Chepstow (small sample)1/333.3%4.040/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand
The rider
Alfie Redman · last 14 days: 0/6· at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n1)· with this yard: A/E 1.6 (n14)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59graded 42% · n=2872
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 7
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 7
102.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 7
7.80 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jun 26Lingfield7fStd68th5960True40.0 -0.08102.6+0.68
19 May 26Lingfield7fGood66th5959True39.9 +0.2594.9+0.36
Timed runs 2025-10-11 to 2026-06-04. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · n=401
11 Oct 25 · 6f22y · Slow — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.1L behind · OR 58 v 63 · race median 61 (today 59)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-3.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs PREFER THE SISTER (IRE) (read through ENGLISH LADY, KONDRATIEV WAVE, MY AMBITION, JOYCEAN WAY) ≈ -5.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs TOO MUCH TREVOR (read through JUDGE FRANK, OASIS SUNRISE, MY AMBITION, GLADIADORA) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
vs ON KEY (read through ENGLISH LADY, MACARONE, ORBITAL CHIME, ENPASSANT) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg graded 52% · n=545
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 3.1 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits