FORMLAB Race Report — Chepstow 17:18

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Chepstow · 17:18

Class 6 · 6f15y · Good to Firm · FIELD MEDIAN OR 59

GENERATED 2026-07-24 · 7 RUNNERS PROFILED

BUILT 16:47 · 24 Jul · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Firm

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 29.4%winner in the projected 1–2–3 60.8%265 races · latest settled day: #1 6/35, top-3 16/35forensic read: #1 28.6% · top-3 59.4% (192)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here spend about 49% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) leads on 57.3, 6pts clear of IL CAPO (IRE) — sharp from the stalls. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is IL CAPO (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) the 25% favourite.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE)

OR 65 · Ryan Kavanagh / David Evans

MARKET backed 4.5 → 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance

57.3 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Drops in class todayThe top rating in this field (57.3)

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

IL CAPO (IRE)

OR 64 · Joe Leavy / Richard Hannon

MARKET backed 7.6 → 6.8 · the market rates it a 15% chance

51.3 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (51.3)Stable in form this week — 7 wins from 31 runs

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

DREAMS GALORE (IRE)

OR 62 · Charles Bishop / Ollie Sangster

MARKET drifting 5.8 → 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance

51 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (51)Stable in form this week — 3 wins from 12 runs

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE)net +8figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here

2IL CAPO (IRE)net +7figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup

3HAVANANOTHERnet +7drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 34% · n=87

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. IL CAPO (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) lacks: one of the two strongest finishers here.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look graded 32% · n=158

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

DEVON ANGEL FIGURE #4

Rod Millman's runners in Class 6-7 company win 14.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Rod Millman's runners kept to the same class win 13.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

What this course & distance favours

Won by front-runners 34% · prominent racers 32% (275 past C&D winners · won up with the pace). Moderately stiff — uphill 2f+ then levels/dips; overall demanding on stamina finish. Draw: Round course inconclusive. straight sprint course: high numbers favoured when stalls stands-side, esp. on soft. Winners’ energy signature: 49.49% spent early (band 49.05–50.12%, 11 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~4 at halfway, 0.19s off the lead). graded 44% · n=331 Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.

Where the pace is drawn · 7 runners · stalls 1–7

1234567

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–7).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · IL CAPO (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · DREAMS GALORE (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) FRONT 49.6% 100.0 the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls

IL CAPO (IRE) MID 48.8% 102.5 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

DREAMS GALORE (IRE) HELD-UP 49.6% 100.9 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

SOVEREIGN BEACH (IRE) HELD-UP 50.6% 98.7 one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

HAVANANOTHER HELD-UP 49.5% 100.4 one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front

SO TEMPTING HELD-UP 49.0% 102.0 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

DEVON ANGEL MID 50.5% 98.6 one-paced late — 7th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE)FRONTtypically ~2.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) FRONT

DRAW 5 · OR 65 · Ryan Kavanagh / David Evans

MARKET backed 4.5 → 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−

57.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 6pts clear of the next, sharp from the stalls; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

57.3 · ranked #1 here · career best 62

Official mark (OR)

65 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 100.0% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 11 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 4 · 6f · rated 514thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 622ndClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

David Evans · 896 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 5-6f trips31/3409.1%0.8912/8614.0%1.28

Coming back after 15 to 45 days35/33010.6%0.989/7911.4%1.18

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company ✦29/23412.4%0.93/595.1%0.4

At this time of year (Q3)19/2069.2%0.922/287.1%0.49

In fields of <=723/14316.1%1.127/6111.5%0.82

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)2/1414.3%1.411/119.1%0.66

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 62 at/around today's trip, clears the ~51.3 demand

The rider

Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 3/14 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.06 (n13) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n16)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields4th of 7

-0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 7

-0.05s

Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 2

Finish · closing speed5th of 7

100.0%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length1st of 7

7.44 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Jul 26Kempton Park6fSlow46th———39.3 +0.0099.8+0.14—

29 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm44th——True40.4 -0.27101.5—

15 Jun 26Chepstow6f16yGood42nd——Slow early42.6 +0.0598.7-0.24

Timed runs 2026-06-15 to 2026-07-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

HAVANANOTHER · 2 meetings≈ 7.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

8 Jul 26 · 6f · Slow — finished 6th vs 8th, 3.5L ahead

DREAMS GALORE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

15 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Good — finished 2nd vs 4th, 4.2L ahead

IL CAPO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

29 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 7th, 2.05L ahead

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+4.8L adj, 4 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayThe top rating in this field (57.3)Only 3 runs at this distance

LTO comment

“mid-division, pushed along before halfway, beaten 2f out”

#2 IL CAPO (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 64 · Joe Leavy / Richard Hannon

MARKET backed 7.6 → 6.8 · the market rates it a 15% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−

51.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 6pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

51.3 · ranked #2 here · career best 59

Official mark (OR)

64 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

18

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.5% (holds late)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 3 · 7f · rated 367thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 596thClass 3 · 7f · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Richard Hannon · 2106 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Pat Dobbs

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company20/17511.4%1.037/2725.9%2.5

At this time of year (Q3)56/6678.4%0.8115/8817.0%1.36

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)0/70.0%0.01/119.1%0.45

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 59 at/around today's trip, clears the ~51.3 demand

The rider

Joe Leavy · last 14 days: 2/23 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.29 (n41) · with this yard: A/E 0.89 (n395)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields7th of 7

-0.41 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 7

+0.15s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 7

102.5%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length6th of 7

7.04 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Lingfield7fStd/Slow38th——True39.8 -0.84102.3+0.23

29 Jun 26Windsor6f12yGd/Frm47th——True40.7 +0.05102.2—

12 Jun 26Sandown Park7fGood36th——Slow early36.5 -0.44103.0+0.06

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.73very slow2f+0.78slow3f+0.79slow4f+0.95par5f+1.15par6f+1.70slow7f+2.66very slow

Timed runs 2026-06-12 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

29 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 4th, 2.05L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayRated #2 in this field (51.3)Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 7 wins from 31 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question

LTO comment

“always behind”

#3 DREAMS GALORE (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 1 · OR 62 · Charles Bishop / Ollie Sangster

MARKET drifting 5.8 → 7 · the market rates it a 14% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

51 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 6.3pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

51 · ranked #3 here · career best 60

Official mark (OR)

62 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

18

Sectional clock

Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 100.89% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 5 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 4 · 5f22y · rated 34thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 427thClass 4 · 5f · rated 60

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ollie Sangster · 716 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: keeping the same jockey

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 15 to 45 days25/22211.3%0.7821/13415.7%1.23

At this time of year (Q3)20/17311.6%0.837/3520.0%1.2

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

On turf ✦29/26011.2%0.811/1139.7%0.76

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/90.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 60 at/around today's trip, clears the ~51.3 demand

The rider

Charles Bishop · last 14 days: 2/27 · at Chepstow: A/E 0.66 (n32) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n5)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 7

-0.06 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 7

+0.30s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 7

100.9%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length3rd of 7

7.28 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Wolverhampton5f21yStd47th——Slow early38.8 -0.50104.2+0.27

15 Jun 26Chepstow6f16yGood44th——Slow early42.5 -0.0598.3+0.03

3 Jun 26Nottingham5fGood47th——True40.9 +0.36100.2+0.61

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.58very slow2f+1.06very slow3f+1.50very slow4f+2.03slow5f+2.87slow

Timed runs 2026-06-03 to 2026-07-06. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

15 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Good — finished 4th vs 2nd, 4.2L behind

HAVANANOTHER · 1 meeting≈ 4.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

15 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Good — finished 4th vs 5th, 4.75L ahead

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 2 rival(s) met (+0.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (51)Only 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 3 wins from 12 runs

LTO comment

“waited with, stumbled after 1f, shaken up approaching halfway, held when edged left entering final 1f”

#4 DEVON ANGEL MID

DRAW 7 · OR 45 · Tyler Heard / Rod Millman

MARKET drifting 7.4 → 9.2 · the market rates it a 11% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−

42.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 15.3pts off the top, in form; one-paced late — 7th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

42.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 42

Official mark (OR)

45 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

10

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s)
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.57% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

steps up 7 places on the course scale (FFOS LAS 34th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 5f · rated 426thClass 5 · 5f · rated 1211thClass 4 · 5f · rated 377thClass 4 · 5f · rated 38

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Rod Millman · 787 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)29/24311.9%0.9911/3432.4%1.86

In Class 6-7 company ✦19/13813.8%1.0411/7714.3%1.28

In fields of <=7 ✦30/12524.0%1.3111/5719.3%1.26

Coming back after 8 to 14 days14/13210.6%0.847/4216.7%1.25

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)2/1020.0%1.272/1513.3%1.06

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 43 is below the ~51.3 the race demands

The rider

Tyler Heard · last 14 days: 0/7 · at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n5) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields5th of 7

-0.13 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 7

+0.26s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed7th of 7

98.6%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 7

7.12 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

14 Jul 26Ffos Las5fGood63rd4759Slow early42.8 +0.00104.6+0.13

12 May 26Bath5f10yGood56th——Fast early40.9 +0.0893.6+0.17

17 Apr 26Bath5f10yGood411th——True37.7 -0.2797.3+0.25

5 Apr 26Bath5f10yGood47th——Slow early38.1 -0.3498.8+0.47

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.40very slow2f+0.38slow3f+0.33par4f+0.36fast5f+0.39fast

Timed runs 2026-04-05 to 2026-07-14. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Data gaps · never met today's rivals

Only 4 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 6 wins from 12 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 10 days ago

LTO comment

“held up, ridden when switched under 2f out, keeping on when hung left over 1f out, never nearer”

#5 SO TEMPTING HELD-UP

DRAW 2 · OR 52 · Ashley Lewis / Tom Ward

MARKET drifting 9.8 → 16 · the market rates it a 6% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−

41.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 15.6pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; its figure was earned on a different surface.

FormLab Figure

41.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 45

Official mark (OR)

52 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 101.99% (holds late)

Course scale · class context

drops 20 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 4 · 6f · rated 356thClass 4 · 6f · rated 458thClass 4 · 6f · rated 45

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tom Ward · 428 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company7/6910.1%1.022/1711.8%1.3

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)15/14910.1%1.060/130.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days20/20010.0%1.022/494.1%0.43

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)0/30.0%0.0—

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 45 is below the ~51.3 the race demands

The rider

Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 7/25 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.12 (n19) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields1st of 7

+0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 7

+0.46s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 7

102.0%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 7

7.06 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Newbury6fGd/Frm46th——True40.9 +0.1598.8—

23 Jun 26Newbury6fGd/Frm46th——True40.4 +0.07102.8+0.35

20 May 26Kempton Park6fSlow48th——True39.4 +0.00104.4+0.56

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.64slow2f+0.76slow3f+0.63par4f+0.66par5f+0.98slow6f+1.75very slow

Timed runs 2026-05-20 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

SOVEREIGN BEACH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

23 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 10th, 5.6L ahead

HAVANANOTHER · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L ahead on today's terms · line-ball

23 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 7th, 0.1L ahead

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+2.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C4→C6) — earned under different conditionsDrops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare result

LTO comment

“rear, shaken up over 2f out, edged left, never dangerous”

#6 SOVEREIGN BEACH (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 4 · OR 59 · George Wood / Ollie Sangster

MARKET backed 17 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

39.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 18pts off the top, backed since the morning; one-paced late — 6th of 7 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

39.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 45

Official mark (OR)

59 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

31

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (one-paced)

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 98.65% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 20 places on the course scale (NEWBURY 7th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

10thClass 4 · 6f · rated 336thClass 4 · 6f · rated 455thClass 4 · 6f · rated 40

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ollie Sangster · 716 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: keeping the same jockey

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Coming back after 15 to 45 days25/22211.3%0.7821/13415.7%1.23

At this time of year (Q3)20/17311.6%0.837/3520.0%1.2

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

On turf ✦29/26011.2%0.811/1139.7%0.76

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/90.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 45 is below the ~51.3 the race demands

The rider

George Wood · last 14 days: 2/30 · at Chepstow: A/E 1.2 (n6) · with this yard: A/E 2.93 (n4)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields6th of 7

-0.14 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 7

+0.16s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 7

98.7%

One-paced late

Stride length7th of 7

6.98 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

23 Jun 26Newbury6fGd/Frm410th——True39.7 -0.57101.8+0.21

12 Jun 26Goodwood6fSoft46th——True37.7 +0.1895.7+0.12

28 May 26Ripon6fGood45th——True40.7 -0.0498.4—

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.66slow2f+0.74very slow3f+0.67par4f+0.79par5f+1.04par6f+1.70slow

Timed runs 2026-05-28 to 2026-06-23. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

HAVANANOTHER · 1 meeting≈ 5.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

23 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 7th, 5.5L behind

SO TEMPTING · 1 meeting≈ 5.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

23 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 6th, 5.6L behind

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-5.5L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 3 wins from 12 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question

LTO comment

“tracked pace, pushed along 2f out, weakened final 1f”

#7 HAVANANOTHER HELD-UP

DRAW 6 · OR 58 · Donagh Murphy / Richard Hughes

MARKET backed 5.5 → 4.7 · the market rates it a 21% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−

39.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 18.3pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; one-paced late — 4th of 7 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

39.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 51

Official mark (OR)

58 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

16

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 100.44% (one-paced late)

Course scale · class context

drops 11 places on the course scale (KEMPTON PARK 16th → CHEPSTOW 27th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 4 · 6f · rated 397thClass 4 · 6f · rated 515thClass 4 · 6f22y · rated 23

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Richard Hughes · 1058 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of <=7 ✦26/16415.9%0.7910/7513.3%0.62

Too few runners to read reliably

At Chepstow (small sample)1/333.3%1.690/60.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company (small sample)20/7726.0%1.523/1717.6%1.42

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 51 is below the ~51.3 the race demands

The rider

Donagh Murphy · last 14 days: 0/11 · at Chepstow: A/E 0 (n2) · with this yard: A/E 0.73 (n47)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 59 graded 42% · n=2872

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 7

-0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 7

+0.26s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 7

100.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length2nd of 7

7.43 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingClassFinORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Jul 26Kempton Park6fSlow48th———38.9 -0.3999.8-0.03—

23 Jun 26Newbury6fGd/Frm47th——True40.3 -0.04103.4+0.11

15 Jun 26Chepstow6f16yGood45th——Slow early42.8 +0.2898.1+0.69

Timed runs 2026-06-15 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 55% · n=401

ABSOLUTE DIAMOND (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 7.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

8 Jul 26 · 6f · Slow — finished 8th vs 6th, 3.5L behind

SOVEREIGN BEACH (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

23 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 10th, 5.5L ahead

SO TEMPTING · 1 meeting≈ 0.1L behind on today's terms · line-ball

23 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 6th, 0.1L behind

DREAMS GALORE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

15 Jun 26 · 6f22y · Good — finished 5th vs 4th, 4.75L behind

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (-2.2L adj, 5 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distance

LTO comment

“held up, no impression”